Auxerre 4-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Auxerre face Annecy.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 8). Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Auxerre's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Annecy (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Annecy have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 60% versus Annecy 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Annecy 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.85 xG and Annecy 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.748 / defence 1.172 | Annecy attack 1.104 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.046. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Auxerre's last 7 games and Annecy's last 45.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 23% | Draw 29% | Annecy 48%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 4.38 | Draw 3.40 | Annecy 2.10. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 60% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 8 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 23% | Draw 29% | Annecy 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Auxerre 0.85 / Annecy 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.748 / def 1.172 | Annecy attack 1.104 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Annecy (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Annecy xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Annecy kick off?
Auxerre vs Annecy kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Annecy?
Auxerre 4 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Auxerre vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Annecy part of?
Auxerre vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 8) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 23% chance of winning, Annecy a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Auxerre and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Auxerre vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.75) and Annecy's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.10x) against Auxerre's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 7 games and Annecy's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
23%
4.38
29%
3.40
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.21
1.35
Annecy xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
6%
16.94
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.9 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.35 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 14D 20L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.22 PPG from 45 outings (13W 16D 16L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Auxerre against 1.22 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 5W 9D 8L across their last 22 home games, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 22 away games (3W 10D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.07 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
Auxerre (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Auxerre vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Annecy in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 11W 14D 20L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while Annecy have gone 13W 16D 16L in their last 45 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Annecy away?
Auxerre's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.09 PPG; Annecy away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Auxerre and Annecy, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Annecy?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 2, Annecy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Annecy 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Annecy?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 54%, Annecy 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Auxerre) and 54% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Auxerre have failed to score in 32% of games; Annecy in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Auxerre's recent matches and 46% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Auxerre's recent games and 54% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Auxerre's recent matches and 73% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Auxerre run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Annecy 4-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.85 xG and Annecy 1.35 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.75 / defence 1.17 against Annecy attack 1.10 / defence 0.88, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 23% | Draw 29% | Annecy 48%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Auxerre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Annecy 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Annecy's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.04 PPG, Annecy 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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