Rodez 2-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Paul Lignon to take on Rodez. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 September 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rodez 1.30 PPG, Estac Troyes 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Estac Troyes trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 52% and Estac Troyes 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 39% | Estac Troyes 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.63 xG and Estac Troyes 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.171 / defence 1.048 | Estac Troyes attack 0.842 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.046. Data: 44 Rodez games / 7 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 53% | Draw 26% | Estac Troyes 21%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Estac Troyes 4.76. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 50% | Estac Troyes 50%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 53% | Draw 26% | Estac Troyes 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Rodez 1.63 / Estac Troyes 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.171 / def 1.048 | Estac Troyes attack 0.842 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Rodez (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Estac Troyes xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Rodez vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Rodez 2 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Rodez vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Estac Troyes part of?
Rodez vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 53% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rodez and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Estac Troyes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Estac Troyes in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.17x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
53%
1.87
26%
3.83
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.56
0.92
Estac Troyes xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
4%
24.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rodez and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Rodez and 0.92 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez's recent record stands at 13W 15D 16L from 44 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 5W 16D 23L across 44 games — 0.70 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rodez by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 6W 7D 9L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 3W 4D 15L across 22 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 70%.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 13W 15D 16L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 5W 16D 23L in their last 44 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Estac Troyes away?
Rodez's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.14 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Rodez won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Rodez
1
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Rodez have won 5, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Rodez 2-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Estac Troyes?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 59%, Estac Troyes 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Rodez) and 77% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 32% of games; Estac Troyes in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Rodez's games and 68% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Rodez's matches and 77% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Rodez and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Estac Troyes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Estac Troyes 2-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.63 xG and Estac Troyes 0.92 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.17 / defence 1.05 against Estac Troyes attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 53% | Draw 26% | Estac Troyes 21%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 39%, Estac Troyes 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.