Estac Troyes 0-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Estac Troyes welcome Saint Etienne to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stade de l'Aube — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Saint Etienne have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Saint Etienne — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Estac Troyes have won 0, Saint Etienne 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Estac Troyes 71% and Saint Etienne 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 64% | Saint Etienne 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.21 xG and Saint Etienne 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.057 / defence 1.217 | Saint Etienne attack 1.122 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.055. Data: 8 Estac Troyes games / 45 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 32% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 42%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Saint Etienne 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 80% | Saint Etienne 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 32% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Estac Troyes 1.21 / Saint Etienne 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.057 / def 1.217 | Saint Etienne attack 1.122 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Saint Etienne xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne?
Estac Troyes 0 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne part of?
Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 32% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne?
Record (2 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
32%
3.15
26%
3.86
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.65
1.44
Saint Etienne xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
13%
7.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.44 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 5W 16D 24L from 45 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 14L across 45 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Saint Etienne by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 2W 12D 8L from 22 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 7W 8D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.56 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Saint Etienne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 5W 16D 24L in their last 45 games (0.69 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 18W 13D 14L in their last 45 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.82 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2024, when Saint Etienne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
4
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-3 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Estac Troyes at 73%, Saint Etienne at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estac Troyes) and 64% (Saint Etienne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Estac Troyes's games and 77% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Estac Troyes's matches and 64% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Estac Troyes and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Saint Etienne edge out Estac Troyes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Estac Troyes 0-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.21 xG and Saint Etienne 1.44 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.06 / defence 1.22 against Saint Etienne attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 8/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 32% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 42%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 64%, Saint Etienne 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.69. That form edge translated into the three points. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.