Dunkerque 0-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Marcel-Tribut plays host to Dunkerque versus Auxerre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dunkerque have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 2W 3D 4L at Stade Marcel-Tribut — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Auxerre (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Auxerre have posted 3W 3D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Dunkerque, 1.60 for Auxerre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 41% versus Auxerre 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 35% | Auxerre 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.08 xG and Auxerre 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.758 / defence 1.091 | Auxerre attack 0.892 / defence 1.499. League average goals — home 0.949 / away 0.974. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.499 — this is suppressing Dunkerque's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Dunkerque games / 17 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 38% | Draw 31% | Auxerre 31%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Auxerre 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dunkerque if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dunkerque 33% | Auxerre 62%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 38% | Draw 31% | Auxerre 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Dunkerque 1.08 / Auxerre 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.758 / def 1.091 | Auxerre attack 0.892 / def 1.499 | league avg home 0.949 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Auxerre xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Auxerre kick off?
Dunkerque vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Auxerre?
Dunkerque 0 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Dunkerque vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Auxerre part of?
Dunkerque vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 38% chance of winning, Auxerre a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dunkerque and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dunkerque and Auxerre in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dunkerque's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.89x) against Dunkerque's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.28
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.02
0.95
Auxerre xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Dunkerque and 0.95 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 4W 4D 9L from 17 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 3L across 17 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dunkerque heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dunkerque are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.65 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 4W 4D 9L in their last 17 games (0.94 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 8W 6D 3L in their last 17 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.00 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Auxerre in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dunkerque
0
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 1, Auxerre have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2024, when Dunkerque 1-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dunkerque tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 25%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 12% (Dunkerque) and 62% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Dunkerque have failed to score in 50% of games; Auxerre in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 62% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Dunkerque's recent games and 62% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Auxerre tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Dunkerque 0-2 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.08 xG and Auxerre 0.95 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dunkerque fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Auxerre outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.76 / defence 1.09 against Auxerre attack 0.89 / defence 1.50, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 38% | Draw 31% | Auxerre 31%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 35%, Auxerre 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dunkerque (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.