Grenoble 0-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Grenoble welcome Auxerre to Stade des Alpes. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Grenoble — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's home record at Stade des Alpes: 5W 1D 3L from 9 Ligue 2 appearances (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grenoble at 1.10 PPG versus Auxerre's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Grenoble, 1 for Auxerre and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Grenoble in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Auxerre in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 37% versus Auxerre 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 42% | Auxerre 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.34 xG and Auxerre 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 1.030 / defence 1.161 | Auxerre attack 0.920 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 1.062. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Grenoble's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Grenoble games / 19 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 41% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 32%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Auxerre 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grenoble at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 44% | Auxerre 56%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 41% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Grenoble 1.34 / Auxerre 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 1.030 / def 1.161 | Auxerre attack 0.920 / def 1.350 | league avg home 0.965 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Auxerre xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Auxerre kick off?
Grenoble vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Auxerre?
Grenoble 0 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Grenoble vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Auxerre part of?
Grenoble vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 41% chance of winning, Auxerre a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Grenoble and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Grenoble 0W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Grenoble and Auxerre in?
Grenoble (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (1.03) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
41%
2.41
27%
3.71
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.48
1.14
Auxerre xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.14 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grenoble come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 3D 10L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Grenoble — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Grenoble's home form reads 5W 1D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Grenoble are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.67 points per game from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Grenoble are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.68 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Auxerre away?
Grenoble's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.78 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Auxerre in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2021, when Auxerre won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grenoble's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Grenoble
2
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 0, Auxerre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2024, when Grenoble 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 44%, Auxerre 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Grenoble) and 56% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Auxerre in 33%; Auxerre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Grenoble's recent matches and 56% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Grenoble's matches and 56% of Auxerre's.
Do Grenoble and Auxerre tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Grenoble 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Grenoble 0-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.34 xG and Auxerre 1.14 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Grenoble fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 1.03 / defence 1.16 against Auxerre attack 0.92 / defence 1.35, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 41% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 32%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 42%, Auxerre 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.