Auxerre 1-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Auxerre welcome Angers to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Auxerre have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Angers have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Auxerre) versus 2.00 (Angers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Auxerre, 0 for Angers and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Angers in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 62% versus Angers 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Angers 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.98 xG and Angers 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.309 / defence 1.054 | Angers attack 1.033 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.120. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — their λ of 1.98 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Angers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Auxerre games / 23 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 55% | Draw 22% | Angers 23%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Angers 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 60% | Angers 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 55% | Draw 22% | Angers 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Auxerre 1.98 / Angers 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.309 / def 1.054 | Angers attack 1.033 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Angers xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Angers kick off?
Auxerre vs Angers kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Angers.
Where is Auxerre vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Angers part of?
Auxerre vs Angers is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 55% chance of winning, Angers a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Auxerre and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
Record (3 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 3 | Angers 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Angers in?
Auxerre (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Angers (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (1.31) and Angers's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.61
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.20
1.22
Angers xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
3%
31.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.22 for Angers, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Angers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 19D 22L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.05 PPG from 61 outings (18W 10D 33L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.30 PPG, Angers on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 11W 10D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.67 points per game from 30 outings (5W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.16 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Angers in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 20W 19D 22L in their last 61 games (1.30 PPG), while Angers have gone 18W 10D 33L in their last 61 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Angers away?
Auxerre's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.43 PPG; Angers away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Angers runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre's record when hosting Angers specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Auxerre
3
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
From 8 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 3, Angers have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Auxerre 3-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Angers?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 57%, Angers 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Auxerre) and 53% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Auxerre have failed to score in 27% of games; Angers in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Auxerre's recent matches and 43% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Auxerre's recent games and 53% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Angers tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Angers in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Angers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Angers 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.98 xG and Angers 1.22 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Angers landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.31 / defence 1.05 against Angers attack 1.03 / defence 1.22, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 55% | Draw 22% | Angers 23%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Angers 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Angers's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.30 PPG, Angers 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.