Annecy 0-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Annecy and Auxerre meet at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Auxerre are 1.40 PPG clear of Annecy in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Annecy have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Auxerre in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Annecy lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2023, ended 0–4 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Auxerre — key trading statistics (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Auxerre 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 50% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.00 xG and Auxerre 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.790 / defence 1.249 | Auxerre attack 1.176 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.102. Annecy's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Annecy games / 24 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 23% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 52%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Auxerre 1.92. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 23% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Annecy 1.00 / Auxerre 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.790 / def 1.249 | Auxerre attack 1.176 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Auxerre xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Auxerre kick off?
Annecy vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Auxerre?
Annecy 0 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Annecy vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Auxerre part of?
Annecy vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 23% chance of winning, Auxerre a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Annecy and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Annecy and Auxerre in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.79) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.18x) against Annecy's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
23%
4.27
25%
4.03
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.62
1.62
Auxerre xG
4.27
23%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
5%
21.56
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Annecy and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Annecy and 1.62 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy come into this having played 62 games, going 16W 20D 26L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.32 PPG from 62 outings (21W 19D 22L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Annecy against 1.32 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Annecy's home form reads 11W 9D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.34 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 61%.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 16W 20D 26L in their last 62 games (1.10 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 21W 19D 22L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Auxerre away?
Annecy's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.35 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Annecy or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Auxerre in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Auxerre?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Annecy 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 42%, Auxerre 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Annecy) and 58% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Annecy's recent matches and 68% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Annecy's recent games and 58% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Auxerre tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Annecy 0-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.00 xG and Auxerre 1.62 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.79 / defence 1.25 against Auxerre attack 1.18 / defence 1.02, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 23% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 52%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Auxerre's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.10 PPG, Auxerre 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.