Annecy 0-3 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Concarneau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Concarneau in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Concarneau's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Concarneau's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Annecy against 1.00 for Concarneau. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Annecy 0W, Concarneau 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Concarneau — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 56% versus Concarneau 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 56% | Concarneau 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.01 xG and Concarneau 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.867 / defence 1.064 | Concarneau attack 0.703 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.110. Data: 61 Annecy games / 23 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 32% | Concarneau 29%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Concarneau 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | Concarneau 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 32% | Concarneau 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Annecy 1.01 / Concarneau 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.867 / def 1.064 | Concarneau attack 0.703 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Annecy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Concarneau xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Concarneau kick off?
Annecy vs Concarneau kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Concarneau?
Annecy 0 - 3 Concarneau.
Where is Annecy vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Concarneau part of?
Annecy vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 39% chance of winning, Concarneau a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Annecy and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Concarneau?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Concarneau 0W.
What form are Annecy and Concarneau in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Concarneau (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.87) and Concarneau's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Concarneau's attack (0.70x) against Annecy's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.10
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.84
0.83
Concarneau xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Annecy and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Annecy and 0.83 for Concarneau, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 8D 10L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Concarneau's form line: 8W 4D 11L from 23 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Annecy against 1.22 for Concarneau. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 4W 2D 5L from 11 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.87 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 5W 8D 10L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 8W 4D 11L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Concarneau away?
Concarneau's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.00 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Annecy or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Concarneau in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Concarneau have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Annecy 0-3 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Concarneau?
Concarneau have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Concarneau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 64%, Concarneau 18% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Annecy) and 27% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Concarneau in 36%; Concarneau in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Annecy's recent matches and 18% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Annecy's recent games and 27% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Concarneau tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Concarneau in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Concarneau run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau beat Annecy 0-3 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.01 xG and Concarneau 0.83 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Concarneau outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Concarneau attack 0.70 / defence 0.94, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 39% | Draw 32% | Concarneau 29%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Concarneau win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 56%, Concarneau 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Concarneau's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.00 PPG, Concarneau 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Concarneau win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Concarneau (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.