Saint Etienne 5-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Estac Troyes at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Estac Troyes are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Saint Etienne have won 2, Estac Troyes 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Saint Etienne trading profile (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes trading profile (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 52% versus Estac Troyes 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 46% | Estac Troyes 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 0.97 xG and Estac Troyes 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.871 / defence 1.018 | Estac Troyes attack 0.706 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.090. Data: 61 Saint Etienne games / 23 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 39% | Draw 33% | Estac Troyes 28%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Estac Troyes 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Estac Troyes's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
Saint Etienne dominate the H2H record, yet Estac Troyes are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Estac Troyes (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 30% | Estac Troyes 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Monday 12 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 39% | Draw 33% | Estac Troyes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Saint Etienne 0.97 / Estac Troyes 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.871 / def 1.018 | Estac Troyes attack 0.706 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Estac Troyes xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 12 February 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Saint Etienne 5 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 39% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 2W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.87x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
39%
2.59
33%
3.01
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
1.75
0.78
Estac Troyes xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
11%
9.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 13.6 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.78 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 24W 16D 21L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes's form line: 10W 21D 30L from 61 games, 0.84 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (14W 7D 10L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 8D 19L from 31 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.16 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 66%.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 24W 16D 21L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 10W 21D 30L in their last 61 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Estac Troyes away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.58 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2024, when Saint Etienne won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-3 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 42%, Estac Troyes 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Saint Etienne) and 64% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 29% of games; Estac Troyes in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 64% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 64% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Saint Etienne run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Estac Troyes 5-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.97 xG and Estac Troyes 0.78 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.87 / defence 1.02 against Estac Troyes attack 0.71 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 39% | Draw 33% | Estac Troyes 28%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 46%, Estac Troyes 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.