Ajaccio 3-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ajaccio at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajaccio and Guingamp meet at Stade François Coty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ajaccio's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's home record at Stade François Coty: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade François Coty than their overall form suggests.
Guingamp have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ajaccio lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 33% versus Guingamp 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 46% | Guingamp 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.93 xG and Guingamp 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 1.011 / defence 0.837 | Guingamp attack 0.950 / defence 0.743. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.110. Guingamp's defence strength of 0.743 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 23 Ajaccio games / 61 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 35% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Guingamp 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Guingamp's lower xG of 0.88 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 40% | Guingamp 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 35% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Ajaccio 0.93 / Guingamp 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 1.011 / def 0.837 | Guingamp attack 0.950 / def 0.743 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Guingamp xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Guingamp kick off?
Ajaccio vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Ajaccio 3 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Ajaccio vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Guingamp part of?
Ajaccio vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 35% chance of winning, Guingamp a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Ajaccio and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Guingamp?
Record (3 meetings): Ajaccio 0W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Ajaccio and Guingamp in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 1.01x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.95x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
35%
2.87
33%
3.05
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.81
0.88
Guingamp xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
13%
7.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 14.5 | 6.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.88 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 16W 11D 34L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 23W 18D 20L from 61 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajaccio.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 12W 10D 8L from 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ajaccio are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.33 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 16W 11D 34L in their last 61 games (0.97 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 23W 18D 20L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.33 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Guingamp in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Guingamp have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 3-0 on 18 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ajaccio
1
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 1, Guingamp have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Ajaccio 0-3 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 30%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ajaccio and 33% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Guingamp in 40%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 47% of games; Guingamp in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ajaccio's recent games and 33% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Guingamp tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajaccio run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Guingamp 3-0 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.93 xG and Guingamp 0.88 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ajaccio beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guingamp landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Guingamp attack 0.95 / defence 0.74, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 35% | Draw 33% | Guingamp 32%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 46%, Guingamp 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Guingamp's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Ajaccio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.