Caen 2-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Caen face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Caen host Amiens at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Caen stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Caen have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Amiens have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Amiens have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Caen at 1.80 PPG versus Amiens's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Caen have won 2, Amiens 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2023, ended Caen 0–0 Amiens — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Caen in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Amiens in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 57% versus Amiens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 52% | Amiens 38%). Note also that Amiens surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Caen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.03 xG and Amiens 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.936 / defence 0.820 | Amiens attack 0.857 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.110. Data: built from Caen's last 61 games and Amiens's last 61.
Result probabilities: Caen 41% | Draw 32% | Amiens 27%. Fair-value odds: Caen 2.46 | Draw 3.09 | Amiens 3.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Amiens's lower xG of 0.78 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Caen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Caen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.81 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 73% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Caen's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Caen 40% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 41% | Draw 32% | Amiens 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Caen 1.03 / Amiens 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.936 / def 0.820 | Amiens attack 0.857 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Caen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Amiens xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Caen vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Caen vs Amiens kick off?
Caen vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Amiens?
Caen 2 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Caen vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Amiens part of?
Caen vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 41% chance of winning, Amiens a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Caen and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Caen vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Caen's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Caen's last 61 games and Amiens's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
41%
2.46
32%
3.09
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Caen xG
Total xG
1.81
0.78
Amiens xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Caen vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Caen and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Caen and 0.78 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Caen have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 25W 17D 19L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Amiens's form line: 22W 16D 23L from 61 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Caen on 1.51 PPG, Amiens on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 29 home games (15W 9D 5L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 9W 7D 13L from their last 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Caen are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.98 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Caen (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Caen
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Caen vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Caen and Amiens in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 25W 17D 19L in their last 61 games (1.51 PPG), while Amiens have gone 22W 16D 23L in their last 61 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Amiens away?
Caen's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.86 PPG; Amiens away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Caen or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Amiens in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Caen's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Caen
3
Draws
1
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Caen vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Amiens?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Caen have won 4, Amiens have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2025: Amiens 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Amiens?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 55%, Amiens 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Caen) and 41% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Amiens in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Caen vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Caen and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Caen's recent matches and 45% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Caen and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Caen's recent games and 41% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Caen's recent matches and 83% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Caen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Amiens 2-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.03 xG and Amiens 0.78 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Caen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.94 / defence 0.82 against Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 0.90, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 41% | Draw 32% | Amiens 27%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 52%, Amiens 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Amiens's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.51 PPG, Amiens 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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