Annecy 1-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Rodez travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 December 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 0.90 PPG versus Rodez's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Annecy register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rodez in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Annecy, 1 for Rodez and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Rodez winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rodez in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 44% versus Rodez 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 47% | Rodez 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.62 xG and Rodez 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.007 / defence 1.171 | Rodez attack 0.933 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.126. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Annecy games / 55 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 46% | Draw 25% | Rodez 29%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Rodez 3.45. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | Rodez 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 46% | Draw 25% | Rodez 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Annecy 1.62 / Rodez 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.007 / def 1.171 | Rodez attack 0.933 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Annecy (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Rodez xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Rodez kick off?
Annecy vs Rodez kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Rodez?
Annecy 1 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Annecy vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Rodez part of?
Annecy vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 46% chance of winning, Rodez a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Annecy and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Rodez?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Annecy and Rodez in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Annecy's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.02
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.85
1.23
Rodez xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
6%
17.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Annecy and 1.23 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 15W 19D 21L from 55 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 16W 19D 20L across 55 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.16 PPG, Rodez on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 11W 8D 8L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 7W 9D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.20 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Rodez in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 15W 19D 21L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Rodez have gone 16W 19D 20L in their last 55 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Rodez away?
Annecy's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.52 PPG; Rodez away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Annecy or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rodez in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Rodez runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rodez have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Annecy
2
Draws
5
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Rodez have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Annecy 1-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 41%, Rodez 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Annecy) and 44% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 30% of games; Rodez in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Annecy's recent matches and 52% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Annecy's recent games and 44% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Rodez tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rodez in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.62 xG and Rodez 1.23 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 1.17 against Rodez attack 0.93 / defence 1.32, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 46% | Draw 25% | Rodez 29%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 47%, Rodez 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.16 PPG, Rodez 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.