Grenoble 1-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grenoble at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grenoble host Annecy at Stade des Alpes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grenoble stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble at Stade des Alpes this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Grenoble have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Grenoble, 0 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Grenoble winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Grenoble in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 33% versus Annecy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 34% | Annecy 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.37 xG and Annecy 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 1.002 / defence 1.107 | Annecy attack 0.904 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.124. Data: 55 Grenoble games / 55 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 42% | Draw 28% | Annecy 30%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Annecy 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Grenoble 40% | Annecy 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 42% | Draw 28% | Annecy 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Grenoble 1.37 / Annecy 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 1.002 / def 1.107 | Annecy attack 0.904 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Annecy xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Annecy kick off?
Grenoble vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Annecy?
Grenoble 1 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Grenoble vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Annecy part of?
Grenoble vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 42% chance of winning, Annecy a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Grenoble and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): Grenoble 1W | Draws 1 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Grenoble and Annecy in?
Grenoble (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Annecy (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grenoble's attack at 1.00x the league average against Annecy's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.60
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.50
1.12
Annecy xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.12 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grenoble come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 16D 18L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.16 PPG from 55 outings (15W 19D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.44 PPG, Annecy on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Grenoble's home form reads 13W 8D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.85 points per game from 27 outings (4W 11D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grenoble are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.07 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Annecy in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 21W 16D 18L in their last 55 games (1.44 PPG), while Annecy have gone 15W 19D 21L in their last 55 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Annecy away?
Grenoble's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.74 PPG; Annecy away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Grenoble's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Grenoble
3
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 3, Annecy have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Annecy 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Annecy?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 37%, Annecy 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Grenoble) and 59% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 37% of games; Annecy in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Grenoble's recent matches and 48% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Grenoble's recent games and 59% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Annecy tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Annecy in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Grenoble edge out Annecy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.37 xG and Annecy 1.12 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Annecy attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 42% | Draw 28% | Annecy 30%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 34%, Annecy 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Annecy's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.44 PPG, Annecy 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.