Rodez 2-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Paul Lignon to face Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Rodez (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's home record at Stade Paul Lignon: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.
PAU have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Rodez against 1.70 for PAU. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Rodez register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, PAU in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Rodez, 2 for PAU and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
PAU — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 57% versus PAU 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 45% | PAU 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.73 xG and PAU 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.262 / defence 1.011 | PAU attack 1.129 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.149. Rodez carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 Rodez games / 57 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 47% | Draw 25% | PAU 29%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 3.45. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 47% | Draw 25% | PAU 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Rodez 1.73 / PAU 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.262 / def 1.011 | PAU attack 1.129 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Rodez (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.31
PAU xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs PAU kick off?
Rodez vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs PAU?
Rodez 2 - 1 PAU.
Where is Rodez vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs PAU part of?
Rodez vs PAU is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 47% chance of winning, PAU a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rodez and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and PAU?
Record (5 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 2 | PAU 2W.
What form are Rodez and PAU in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. PAU (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.26x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.13x) against Rodez's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
47%
2.14
25%
4.04
29%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Rodez xG
Total xG
3.04
1.31
PAU xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.51
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
5%
19.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Rodez and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Rodez and 1.31 for PAU, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez's recent record stands at 17W 19D 20L from 56 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 18L across 56 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Rodez against 1.39 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 9W 10D 8L from 27 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 9W 8D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.30 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and PAU in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 17W 19D 20L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while PAU have gone 20W 18D 18L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or PAU away?
Rodez's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.37 PPG; PAU away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 0-5 on 14 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rodez
3
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 4, PAU have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when PAU 3-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and PAU?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 63%, PAU 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Rodez) and 41% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 26% of games; PAU in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Rodez's games and 59% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Rodez's recent games and 41% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and PAU tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PAU in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out PAU 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat PAU 2-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.73 xG and PAU 1.31 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.26 / defence 1.01 against PAU attack 1.13 / defence 1.15, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 47% | Draw 25% | PAU 29%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 45%, PAU 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.25 PPG, PAU 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.