PAU 1-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 December 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
PAU — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Estac Troyes have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
PAU are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
PAU in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 52% versus Estac Troyes 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 46% | Estac Troyes 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.72 xG and Estac Troyes 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.351 / defence 1.283 | Estac Troyes attack 0.850 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.126. PAU carry an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 56 PAU games / 18 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 27%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Estac Troyes 3.70. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PAU 50% | Estac Troyes 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG PAU 1.72 / Estac Troyes 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.351 / def 1.283 | Estac Troyes attack 0.850 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: PAU (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Estac Troyes xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Estac Troyes kick off?
PAU vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Estac Troyes?
PAU 1 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is PAU vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Estac Troyes part of?
PAU vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 49% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both PAU and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Estac Troyes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAU and Estac Troyes in?
PAU (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.35x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.15
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
PAU xG
Total xG
2.95
1.23
Estac Troyes xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
5%
20.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are PAU and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for PAU and 1.23 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAU's recent record stands at 20W 17D 19L from 56 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 8W 19D 29L across 56 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAU by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAU have managed 11W 9D 8L from 28 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 4W 6D 18L across 28 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.16 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 66%.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 20W 17D 19L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 8W 19D 29L in their last 56 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Estac Troyes away?
PAU's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.50 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Estac Troyes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
PAU
3
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, PAU have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Estac Troyes 4-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 46%, Estac Troyes 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for PAU and 71% for Estac Troyes. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 29% of games; Estac Troyes in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of PAU's games and 68% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAU vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of PAU's matches and 71% of Estac Troyes's.
Do PAU and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Estac Troyes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 19, as PAU and Estac Troyes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.72 xG and Estac Troyes 1.23 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.35 / defence 1.28 against Estac Troyes attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 49% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 27%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 46%, Estac Troyes 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.