PAU 1-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Estac Troyes travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 19). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
PAU — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, PAU have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Estac Troyes have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Estac Troyes have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
PAU are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
PAU in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 52% versus Estac Troyes 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 46% | Estac Troyes 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.72 xG and Estac Troyes 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.351 / defence 1.283 | Estac Troyes attack 0.850 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.126. PAU carry an above-average attack rating of 1.351 — their 1.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. PAU's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estac Troyes's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 56 games and Estac Troyes's last 18.
Result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 27%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.05 | Draw 4.15 | Estac Troyes 3.68. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (PAU's last 10 home games and Estac Troyes's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAU 50% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG PAU 1.72 / Estac Troyes 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.351 / def 1.283 | Estac Troyes attack 0.850 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: PAU (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Estac Troyes xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAU vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does PAU vs Estac Troyes kick off?
PAU vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Estac Troyes?
PAU 1 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is PAU vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Estac Troyes part of?
PAU vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 49% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both PAU and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will PAU vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.35x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PAU's last 56 games and Estac Troyes's last 18 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.15
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
PAU xG
Total xG
2.95
1.23
Estac Troyes xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
5%
20.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAU vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are PAU and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for PAU and 1.23 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAU's recent record stands at 20W 17D 19L from 56 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 8W 19D 29L across 56 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours PAU by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAU have managed 11W 9D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 4W 6D 18L across their last 28 away games, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.16 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 66%.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
PAU (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAU
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ PAU vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are PAU and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 20W 17D 19L in their last 56 games (1.38 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 8W 19D 29L in their last 56 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Estac Troyes away?
PAU's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.50 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Oct 2024, when Estac Troyes won Estac Troyes 3-0 PAU.
PAU's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
PAU
3
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ PAU vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Estac Troyes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, PAU have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: Estac Troyes 4-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 46%, Estac Troyes 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for PAU and 71% for Estac Troyes. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 29% of games; Estac Troyes in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAU vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAU and Estac Troyes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of PAU's games and 68% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are PAU and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of PAU's matches and 71% of Estac Troyes's.
Do PAU and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of PAU's recent matches and 79% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Estac Troyes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 19, as PAU and Estac Troyes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.72 xG and Estac Troyes 1.23 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.35 / defence 1.28 against Estac Troyes attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 49% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 27%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 46%, Estac Troyes 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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