Paris FC 2-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris FC (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris FC face Quevilly.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Quevilly at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Charléty. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Paris FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Paris FC, 1 for Quevilly and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 1–3 with Quevilly winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 43% versus Quevilly 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 45% | Quevilly 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.52 xG and Quevilly 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.027 / defence 0.943 | Quevilly attack 1.102 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.126. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Paris FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Paris FC games / 56 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Quevilly 3.45. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 20% | Quevilly 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Paris FC 1.52 / Quevilly 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.027 / def 0.943 | Quevilly attack 1.102 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Quevilly xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Quevilly kick off?
Paris FC vs Quevilly kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Paris FC 2 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is Paris FC vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Quevilly part of?
Paris FC vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 45% chance of winning, Quevilly a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Paris FC and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Quevilly?
Record (4 meetings): Paris FC 3W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Paris FC and Quevilly in?
Paris FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.03) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.88
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.17
Quevilly xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.17 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Paris FC come into this having played 56 games, going 23W 12D 21L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.18 PPG from 56 outings (15W 21D 20L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.45 PPG, Quevilly on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Paris FC's home form reads 12W 4D 12L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (7W 9D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.25 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 23W 12D 21L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 15W 21D 20L in their last 56 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Quevilly away?
Paris FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.43 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Quevilly in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Paris FC and Quevilly runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Paris FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris FC's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Paris FC
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 3, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Quevilly 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Quevilly?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 39%, Quevilly 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Paris FC) and 43% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Quevilly in 36%; Paris FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Quevilly in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Paris FC's recent matches and 39% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Paris FC's recent games and 43% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Quevilly tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC and Quevilly share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 19, as Paris FC and Quevilly drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.52 xG and Quevilly 1.17 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Quevilly attack 1.10 / defence 1.22, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 45%, Quevilly 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Quevilly's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.45 PPG, Quevilly 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.