Rodez 2-2 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rodez face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Amiens meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2 (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Rodez (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rodez are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Amiens's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Amiens have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Rodez, 1 for Amiens and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Rodez 3–1 Amiens — a Rodez win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 56% versus Amiens 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 43% | Amiens 39%). Note also that Amiens surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Rodez recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.66 xG and Amiens 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.235 / defence 0.911 | Amiens attack 0.689 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.124. Amiens's attack rating of 0.689 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Rodez's last 54 games and Amiens's last 55.
Result probabilities: Rodez 60% | Draw 25% | Amiens 15%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Amiens 6.58. The model has a clear lean to Rodez (60%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rodez 60% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 18 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 60% | Draw 25% | Amiens 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Rodez 1.66 / Amiens 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.235 / def 0.911 | Amiens attack 0.689 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Rodez (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Amiens xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rodez vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Rodez vs Amiens kick off?
Rodez vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Amiens?
Rodez 2 - 2 Amiens.
Where is Rodez vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Amiens part of?
Rodez vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 18) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 60% chance of winning, Amiens a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Rodez and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Rodez vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rodez's attack at 1.24x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.69x) against Rodez's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from Rodez's last 54 games and Amiens's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
60%
1.67
25%
4.00
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.36
0.70
Amiens xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
30%
3.38
3%
34.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 11.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rodez vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Rodez and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Rodez and 0.70 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rodez come into this having played 54 games, going 16W 18D 20L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.30 PPG from 54 outings (19W 13D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Rodez against 1.30 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rodez's home form reads 9W 8D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 6D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.00 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Rodez (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rodez
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Rodez vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Rodez and Amiens in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 16W 18D 20L in their last 54 games (1.22 PPG), while Amiens have gone 19W 13D 22L in their last 54 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Amiens away?
Rodez's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.40 PPG; Amiens away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Rodez and Amiens, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 17 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rodez
4
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Rodez vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Amiens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rodez have won 3, Amiens have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 April 2026: Rodez 3-2 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 60%, Amiens 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Rodez) and 40% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 28% of games; Amiens in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rodez vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rodez and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Rodez's recent matches and 48% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rodez and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Rodez's recent games and 40% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Rodez's recent matches and 80% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Amiens share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez and Amiens finished level at 2-2 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.66 xG and Amiens 0.70 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Amiens outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.24 / defence 0.91 against Amiens attack 0.69 / defence 1.07, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 60% | Draw 25% | Amiens 15%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 43%, Amiens 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Amiens's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.22 PPG, Amiens 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rodez (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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