Angers 2-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Angers at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Angers host Estac Troyes at Stade Raymond Kopa in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Angers stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Angers's home record at Stade Raymond Kopa: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Angers are significantly better at Stade Raymond Kopa than their overall form suggests.
Estac Troyes — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Angers at 1.20 PPG versus Estac Troyes's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Angers have won 3, Estac Troyes 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 4–1 with Angers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Angers in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 50% versus Estac Troyes 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 54% | Estac Troyes 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.55 xG and Estac Troyes 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.146 / defence 1.143 | Estac Troyes attack 0.587 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.182. Data: 32 Angers games / 32 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 54% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 18%. Fair-value odds: Angers 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Estac Troyes 5.56. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Angers are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Angers 50% | Estac Troyes 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 54% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Angers 1.55 / Estac Troyes 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.146 / def 1.143 | Estac Troyes attack 0.587 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Angers (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Estac Troyes xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Angers vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Estac Troyes?
Angers 2 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Angers vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Estac Troyes part of?
Angers vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 54% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Angers and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Estac Troyes?
Record (5 meetings): Angers 3W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Angers and Estac Troyes in?
Angers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Angers's attack rating (1.15) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.58
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Angers xG
Total xG
2.34
0.79
Estac Troyes xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
4%
26.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Angers and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Angers and 0.79 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Angers's recent record stands at 20W 13D 37L from 70 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 12W 23D 35L across 70 games — 0.84 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.04 PPG, Estac Troyes on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Angers have managed 14W 6D 15L from 35 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 4W 10D 21L across 35 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Angers are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.16 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 64%.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 20W 13D 37L in their last 70 games (1.04 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 12W 23D 35L in their last 70 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Estac Troyes away?
Angers's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.37 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Angers and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Angers go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Angers won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Angers's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Angers
1
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Angers have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Angers 2-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Estac Troyes?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 60%, Estac Troyes 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Angers and 60% for Estac Troyes. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 49% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Angers's games and 60% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Angers vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Angers's matches and 60% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Angers and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Angers edge out Estac Troyes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Estac Troyes 2-1 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.55 xG and Estac Troyes 0.79 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.15 / defence 1.14 against Estac Troyes attack 0.59 / defence 1.16, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 54% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 18%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 54%, Estac Troyes 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.04 PPG, Estac Troyes 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.