Guingamp 1-2 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host Angers at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Angers — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Angers's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.20 (Angers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Guingamp, 1 for Angers and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Angers winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Angers trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 45% versus Angers 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 44% | Angers 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.15 xG and Angers 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.892 / defence 0.913 | Angers attack 0.888 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.156. Data: 71 Guingamp games / 33 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 40% | Draw 31% | Angers 29%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Angers 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Angers 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 40% | Draw 31% | Angers 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Guingamp 1.15 / Angers 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.892 / def 0.913 | Angers attack 0.888 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Angers xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Angers kick off?
Guingamp vs Angers kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Angers?
Guingamp 1 - 2 Angers.
Where is Guingamp vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Angers part of?
Guingamp vs Angers is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 40% chance of winning, Angers a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Guingamp and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Angers?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 0 | Angers 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Angers in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Angers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 0.89x the league average against Angers's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.18
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.09
0.94
Angers xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.94 for Angers, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 71 games, going 27W 21D 23L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.07 PPG from 71 outings (21W 13D 37L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.44 PPG, Angers on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 12W 10D 13L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.71 points per game from 35 outings (6W 7D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.15 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Angers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Angers in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 27W 21D 23L in their last 71 games (1.44 PPG), while Angers have gone 21W 13D 37L in their last 71 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Angers away?
Guingamp's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.31 PPG; Angers away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Angers in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guingamp
0
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Angers?
From 2 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 0, Angers have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Guingamp 1-2 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Angers?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 43%, Angers 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Guingamp) and 49% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 37% of games; Angers in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Angers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Guingamp's recent matches and 40% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Guingamp's recent games and 49% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Angers tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Angers in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Angers defy the odds to beat Guingamp 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Guingamp 1-2 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.15 xG and Angers 0.94 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Angers outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Angers attack 0.89 / defence 1.11, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 40% | Draw 31% | Angers 29%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Angers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 44%, Angers 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Angers's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.44 PPG, Angers 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.