Annecy 0-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Grenoble encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Grenoble travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Annecy stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Annecy have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Grenoble — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Grenoble's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Annecy are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Annecy, 2 for Grenoble and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Annecy 0–1 Grenoble — a Grenoble win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Grenoble trading profile (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus Grenoble 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 51% | Grenoble 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.25 xG and Grenoble 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.915 / defence 1.056 | Grenoble attack 0.842 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.182. Data: built from Annecy's last 70 games and Grenoble's last 70.
Result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 31% | Grenoble 30%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.54 | Draw 3.24 | Grenoble 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Annecy 50% (last 10 home games) | Grenoble 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 33 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 39% | Draw 31% | Grenoble 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Annecy 1.25 / Grenoble 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.915 / def 1.056 | Grenoble attack 0.842 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Annecy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Grenoble xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Grenoble FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Grenoble kick off?
Annecy vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Grenoble?
Annecy 0 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Annecy vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Grenoble part of?
Annecy vs Grenoble is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 33) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 39% chance of winning, Grenoble a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Annecy and Grenoble will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Annecy vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.92x the league average against Grenoble's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 70 games and Grenoble's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.24
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.30
1.05
Grenoble xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Grenoble Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Annecy and 1.05 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 21W 21D 28L from 70 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Grenoble, meanwhile, have gone 24W 21D 25L across 70 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.20 PPG, Grenoble on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 13W 10D 12L from their last 35 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grenoble's away record stands at 9W 9D 17L across their last 35 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.00 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Grenoble
Current Season
Annecy (Home) vs Grenoble (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Current Season
Grenoble
Current Season
❓ Annecy vs Grenoble Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 21W 21D 28L in their last 70 games (1.20 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 24W 21D 25L in their last 70 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Grenoble away?
Annecy's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.40 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Annecy or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Grenoble in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Annecy
3
Draws
3
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Grenoble H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Grenoble?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 3, Grenoble have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Grenoble last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Grenoble 1-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 43%, Grenoble 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Annecy) and 40% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Grenoble in 31%; Annecy have failed to score in 34% of games; Grenoble in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Grenoble Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Grenoble matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Annecy's recent matches and 34% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Grenoble matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Annecy's recent games and 40% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Grenoble matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Annecy's recent matches and 60% of Grenoble's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grenoble defy the odds to beat Annecy 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Annecy 0-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.25 xG and Grenoble 1.05 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Annecy fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.92 / defence 1.06 against Grenoble attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 39% | Draw 31% | Grenoble 30%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Grenoble win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 51%, Grenoble 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.20 PPG, Grenoble 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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