Estac Troyes 2-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Estac Troyes welcome PAU to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 5W 0D 5L at Stade de l'Aube — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. PAU's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 0 for PAU and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
PAU in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 65% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 58% | PAU 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.42 xG and PAU 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.152 / defence 1.262 | PAU attack 1.233 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.156. PAU have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Estac Troyes games / 71 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 30% | Draw 24% | PAU 46%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | PAU 2.17. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 70% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 30% | Draw 24% | PAU 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Estac Troyes 1.42 / PAU 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.152 / def 1.262 | PAU attack 1.233 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: PAU (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.80
PAU xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs PAU kick off?
Estac Troyes vs PAU kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Estac Troyes 2 - 2 PAU.
Where is Estac Troyes vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs PAU part of?
Estac Troyes vs PAU is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 30% chance of winning, PAU a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Estac Troyes and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 1 | PAU 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and PAU in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. PAU (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 1.15x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
30%
3.35
24%
4.14
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
3.22
1.80
PAU xG
3.35
30%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
17%
6.05
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
5%
20.28
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.80 for PAU, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 12W 23D 36L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
PAU's form line: 25W 22D 24L from 71 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, PAU are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.06 PPG from 35 outings (8W 13D 14L).
On the road, PAU have gone 12W 10D 13L from 35 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.31 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and PAU in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 12W 23D 36L in their last 71 games (0.83 PPG), while PAU have gone 25W 22D 24L in their last 71 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.06 PPG; PAU away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Estac Troyes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting PAU specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
3
Draws
0
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, PAU have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Estac Troyes 4-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and PAU?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 69%, PAU 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Estac Troyes) and 43% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 26% of games; PAU in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Estac Troyes's games and 57% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 43% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and PAU tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, PAU in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and PAU share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes and PAU finished level at 2-2 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.42 xG and PAU 1.80 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.15 / defence 1.26 against PAU attack 1.23 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 30% | Draw 24% | PAU 46%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 58%, PAU 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.