Angers 2-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Concarneau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Concarneau travel to Stade Raymond-Kopa to take on Angers in Ligue 2 (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Angers stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Angers have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 8 games, Concarneau have recorded 2W 2D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.62 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings (25%). Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Concarneau's away record over their last 4 away games: 2W 0D 2L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Angers are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Angers in-play and half-time data (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Concarneau in-play and half-time data (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 25% of Angers's games and 25% of Concarneau's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Angers 25% | Concarneau 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.44 xG and Concarneau 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.977 / defence 0.865 | Concarneau attack 0.907 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.050. Data: built from Angers's last 8 games and Concarneau's last 8.
Result probabilities: Angers 52% | Draw 27% | Concarneau 21%. Fair-value odds: Angers 1.93 | Draw 3.72 | Concarneau 4.66. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Angers 50% (last 10 home games) | Concarneau 25% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 9 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 52% | Draw 27% | Concarneau 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Angers 1.44 / Concarneau 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.977 / def 0.865 | Concarneau attack 0.907 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Angers (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Concarneau xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Concarneau FAQs
What time does Angers vs Concarneau kick off?
Angers vs Concarneau kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Concarneau?
Angers 2 - 0 Concarneau.
Where is Angers vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Concarneau part of?
Angers vs Concarneau is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 9) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 52% chance of winning, Concarneau a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Angers and Concarneau will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Angers vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Angers's attack at 0.98x the league average against Concarneau's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Concarneau's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 8 games and Concarneau's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.72
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Angers xG
Total xG
2.27
0.82
Concarneau xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
5%
19.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Concarneau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Angers and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Angers and 0.82 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Angers have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 4W 2D 2L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Concarneau's form line: 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Angers are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Concarneau.
Venue Form
On home soil, Angers have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 4 home games (2W 2D 0L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 2W 0D 2L from their last 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Concarneau travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.62 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Angers have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Concarneau in 25%.
Defensively: Angers have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
Angers (Home) vs Concarneau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
❓ Angers vs Concarneau Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Concarneau away?
Angers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 2.00 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Angers or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Concarneau in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Angers
0
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Concarneau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Concarneau?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 2, Concarneau have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Concarneau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2024: Concarneau 2-4 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Concarneau?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Concarneau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Angers 25% BTTS, Concarneau 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Angers) and 50% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Concarneau in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Concarneau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Concarneau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Angers's recent matches and 25% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Angers and Concarneau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Angers's recent games and 50% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Concarneau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Angers's recent matches and 75% of Concarneau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Concarneau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Concarneau 2-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.44 xG and Concarneau 0.82 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Concarneau landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Concarneau attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 52% | Draw 27% | Concarneau 21%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 25%, Concarneau 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Concarneau's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Concarneau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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