Valenciennes 0-1 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valenciennes at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valenciennes vs Concarneau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valenciennes host Concarneau at Stade du Hainaut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Valenciennes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valenciennes at Stade du Hainaut this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Concarneau — All Games: 1W 2D 4L from 7 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.71 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Concarneau have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Concarneau have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valenciennes at 1.20 PPG versus Concarneau's 0.71. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Valenciennes trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Concarneau trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Valenciennes 29% | Concarneau 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valenciennes 43% | Concarneau 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.42 xG and Concarneau 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.845 / defence 1.227 | Concarneau attack 0.931 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.046. Concarneau bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Valenciennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Valenciennes games / 7 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 41% | Draw 28% | Concarneau 31%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Concarneau 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valenciennes as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valenciennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Valenciennes 60% | Concarneau 33%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 41% | Draw 28% | Concarneau 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Valenciennes 1.42 / Concarneau 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.845 / def 1.227 | Concarneau attack 0.931 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Valenciennes (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Concarneau xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Concarneau kick off?
Valenciennes vs Concarneau kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Concarneau?
Valenciennes 0 - 1 Concarneau.
Where is Valenciennes vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Concarneau part of?
Valenciennes vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 41% chance of winning, Concarneau a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valenciennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Valenciennes and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Concarneau?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valenciennes and Concarneau in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Concarneau (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valenciennes's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Concarneau's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Concarneau's attack versus Valenciennes's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valenciennes Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.62
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.61
1.20
Concarneau xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.20 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Valenciennes have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 1W 3D 3L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Valenciennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Concarneau's form line: 1W 2D 4L from 7 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Concarneau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valenciennes on 0.86 PPG, Concarneau on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Valenciennes have posted 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That actually lags their 0.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Concarneau have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Concarneau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valenciennes are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valenciennes have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Concarneau in 29%.
Defensively: Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Early Season
Concarneau
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Concarneau away?
Concarneau's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 0.33 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Valenciennes or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Concarneau in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Valenciennes
0
Draws
2
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 0, Concarneau have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Concarneau 1-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Concarneau?
Concarneau have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Concarneau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 67%, Concarneau 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Valenciennes and 67% for Concarneau. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valenciennes keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valenciennes have failed to score in 33% of games; Concarneau in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 33% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valenciennes vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Valenciennes's matches and 67% of Concarneau's.
Do Valenciennes and Concarneau tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Concarneau in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Concarneau defy the odds to beat Valenciennes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau beat Valenciennes 0-1 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.42 xG and Concarneau 1.20 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Valenciennes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.84 / defence 1.23 against Concarneau attack 0.93 / defence 1.29, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 41% | Draw 28% | Concarneau 31%, with Valenciennes to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Concarneau win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 43%, Concarneau 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Concarneau's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 0.86 PPG, Concarneau 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Concarneau win broke the near-deadlock. Valenciennes (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Concarneau (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.