Amiens 2-3 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Amiens take on PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Amiens and PAU meet at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Amiens's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Amiens's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
PAU have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, PAU have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Amiens's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of PAU's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Amiens's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) — Amiens have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAU in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Amiens, 3 for PAU and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Amiens 0–1 PAU — a PAU win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 48% versus PAU 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 36% | PAU 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.93 xG and PAU 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.841 / defence 0.848 | PAU attack 0.883 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.104. Data: built from Amiens's last 67 games and PAU's last 67.
Result probabilities: Amiens 35% | Draw 35% | PAU 29%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.84 | Draw 2.82 | PAU 3.40. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — PAU's lower xG of 0.83 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Amiens's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Amiens 60% (last 10 home games) | PAU 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 30 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 35% | Draw 35% | PAU 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Amiens 0.93 / PAU 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.841 / def 0.848 | PAU attack 0.883 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.83
PAU xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs PAU FAQs
What time does Amiens vs PAU kick off?
Amiens vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs PAU?
Amiens 2 - 3 PAU.
Where is Amiens vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs PAU part of?
Amiens vs PAU is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 30) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 35% chance of winning, PAU a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Amiens and PAU will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Amiens vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Amiens's attack rating (0.84) and PAU's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.88x) against Amiens's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 67 games and PAU's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.84
35%
2.82
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.76
0.83
PAU xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
12%
8.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 14.2 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs PAU Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Amiens and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Amiens and 0.83 for PAU, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens's recent record stands at 23W 20D 24L from 67 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 22W 21D 24L across 67 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Amiens against 1.30 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 12W 11D 10L from their last 33 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 10W 10D 13L across their last 33 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.22 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
Amiens (Home) vs PAU (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Amiens vs PAU Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and PAU in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 23W 20D 24L in their last 67 games (1.33 PPG), while PAU have gone 22W 21D 24L in their last 67 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or PAU away?
Amiens's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.42 PPG; PAU away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Amiens or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, PAU in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Amiens and PAU, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
1
Draws
5
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs PAU H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and PAU?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 4, PAU have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Amiens and PAU last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Amiens 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 52%, PAU 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Amiens) and 39% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; PAU in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs PAU Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and PAU matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Amiens's recent matches and 54% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and PAU matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Amiens's recent games and 39% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and PAU matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Amiens's recent matches and 67% of PAU's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Amiens 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Amiens 2-3 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.93 xG and PAU 0.83 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.84 / defence 0.85 against PAU attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 35% | Draw 35% | PAU 29%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 36%, PAU 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.33 PPG, PAU 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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