Amiens 0-2 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Estac Troyes (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Amiens face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Estac Troyes at Stade de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). Kick-off is Monday 2 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Amiens — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Amiens have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estac Troyes stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Estac Troyes away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Estac Troyes — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Estac Troyes have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Amiens.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2025, ended Amiens 1–3 Estac Troyes — a Estac Troyes win.
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 52% versus Estac Troyes 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 55% | Estac Troyes 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.17 xG and Estac Troyes 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.073 / defence 1.411 | Estac Troyes attack 0.794 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.167. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Amiens's defence rating of 1.411 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estac Troyes's projected output up. Data: built from Amiens's last 58 games and Estac Troyes's last 58.
Result probabilities: Amiens 32% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 39%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.14 | Draw 3.37 | Estac Troyes 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 60% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Monday 2 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 32% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Amiens 1.17 / Estac Troyes 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.073 / def 1.411 | Estac Troyes attack 0.794 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Estac Troyes xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Amiens vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 2 March 2026 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Amiens 0 - 2 Estac Troyes.
Where is Amiens vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Estac Troyes part of?
Amiens vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 32% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Amiens and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Amiens vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Amiens's attack at 1.07x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 58 games and Estac Troyes's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
32%
3.14
30%
3.37
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.47
1.31
Estac Troyes xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Amiens and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Amiens and 1.31 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 19W 9D 30L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 26W 11D 21L from 58 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.14 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 28 home games (12W 5D 11L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 9W 6D 13L from their last 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.28 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
Amiens (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Amiens vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 19W 9D 30L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 26W 11D 21L in their last 58 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Estac Troyes away?
Amiens's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.46 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Amiens or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 2 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Estac Troyes have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Jan 2025, when Estac Troyes won Amiens 0-3 Estac Troyes.
Amiens's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Amiens
1
Draws
5
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Estac Troyes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Amiens and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2026: Amiens 0-2 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 57%, Estac Troyes 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Amiens) and 46% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 36%; Estac Troyes in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Estac Troyes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Amiens's recent matches and 39% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Amiens's recent games and 46% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Amiens's recent matches and 61% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Amiens 0-2 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.17 xG and Estac Troyes 1.31 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.07 / defence 1.41 against Estac Troyes attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 32% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 39%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 55%, Estac Troyes 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.14 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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