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Poisson rates Rodez at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Rodez encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Rodez — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rodez away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rodez — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Guingamp: 4 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Rodez, with 4 draws across those contests.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Rodez winning.

The historical record gives Guingamp a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Rodez trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 53% and Rodez 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 64% | Rodez 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.48 xG and Rodez 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.087 / defence 1.088 | Rodez attack 1.204 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.179. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Guingamp games / 58 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 25% | Rodez 39%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Rodez 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Guingamp dominate the H2H record, yet Rodez are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Rodez 90% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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