Guingamp 0-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rodez at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rodez — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rodez — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Guingamp: 4 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Rodez, with 4 draws across those contests.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Rodez winning.
The historical record gives Guingamp a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Rodez trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 53% and Rodez 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 64% | Rodez 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.48 xG and Rodez 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.087 / defence 1.088 | Rodez attack 1.204 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.179. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Guingamp games / 58 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 25% | Rodez 39%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Rodez 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Guingamp dominate the H2H record, yet Rodez are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Rodez 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 36% | Draw 25% | Rodez 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Guingamp 1.48 / Rodez 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.087 / def 1.088 | Rodez attack 1.204 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Rodez (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Rodez xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Rodez kick off?
Guingamp vs Rodez kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Guingamp 0 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Guingamp vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Rodez part of?
Guingamp vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 36% chance of winning, Rodez a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Guingamp and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Rodez?
Record (9 meetings): Guingamp 4W | Draws 4 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Rodez in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Rodez (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
36%
2.79
25%
3.95
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.02
1.54
Rodez xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
8%
13.07
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.54 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp's recent record stands at 25W 11D 22L from 58 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 19L across 58 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.48 PPG, Rodez on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 13W 6D 9L from 28 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 8W 10D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.50 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 71%.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Rodez in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 25W 11D 22L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Rodez have gone 18W 21D 19L in their last 58 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Rodez away?
Guingamp's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.61 PPG; Rodez away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
5
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Rodez have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Rodez?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 46%, Rodez 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Guingamp and 68% for Rodez. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Guingamp's games and 71% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Guingamp's matches and 68% of Rodez's.
Do Guingamp and Rodez tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rodez in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Guingamp's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 25, as Guingamp and Rodez drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.48 xG and Rodez 1.54 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Rodez landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.09 / defence 1.09 against Rodez attack 1.20 / defence 1.20, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 36% | Draw 25% | Rodez 39%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 64%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Rodez's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.48 PPG, Rodez 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.