Amiens 1-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Amiens welcome Annecy to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Annecy have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Amiens are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Amiens, 1 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Annecy in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 47% versus Annecy 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Annecy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.12 xG and Annecy 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.819 / defence 0.884 | Annecy attack 0.851 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. Data: 58 Amiens games / 58 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 42% | Draw 31% | Annecy 28%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Annecy 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 50% | Annecy 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 42% | Draw 31% | Annecy 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Amiens 1.12 / Annecy 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.819 / def 0.884 | Annecy attack 0.851 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Amiens (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Annecy xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Annecy kick off?
Amiens vs Annecy kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Annecy?
Amiens 1 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Amiens vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Annecy part of?
Amiens vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 42% chance of winning, Annecy a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Amiens and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Annecy?
Record (3 meetings): Amiens 1W | Draws 1 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Amiens and Annecy in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Annecy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Amiens's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
42%
2.41
31%
3.25
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.97
0.85
Annecy xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Amiens and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Amiens and 0.85 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens's recent record stands at 20W 15D 23L from 58 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 15W 19D 24L across 58 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.29 PPG, Annecy on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 11W 8D 10L from 29 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 4W 11D 14L across 29 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.05 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Annecy in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 20W 15D 23L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while Annecy have gone 15W 19D 24L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Annecy away?
Amiens's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.41 PPG; Annecy away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Amiens or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Annecy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Annecy runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Annecy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2024, when Annecy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Amiens
1
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Annecy have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 48%, Annecy 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Amiens) and 59% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 28% of games; Annecy in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Amiens's recent matches and 48% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Amiens's recent games and 59% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Annecy tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Annecy in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Annecy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.12 xG and Annecy 0.85 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.82 / defence 0.88 against Annecy attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 42% | Draw 31% | Annecy 28%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Annecy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Annecy's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.29 PPG, Annecy 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.