Concarneau 1-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Concarneau vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Estac Troyes make the trip to Stade Francis-Le Blé to face Concarneau in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Concarneau's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Concarneau's home record at Stade Francis-Le Blé: 2W 2D 5L from 9 Ligue 2 appearances (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Estac Troyes (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Estac Troyes have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Concarneau against 1.50 for Estac Troyes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Concarneau lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Concarneau — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 35% versus Estac Troyes 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Concarneau 40% | Estac Troyes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 1.01 xG and Estac Troyes 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.823 / defence 1.389 | Estac Troyes attack 0.829 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. Data: 20 Concarneau games / 20 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Concarneau 29% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 43%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Estac Troyes 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Concarneau 56% | Estac Troyes 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Concarneau vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Concarneau 29% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Concarneau 1.01 / Estac Troyes 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Concarneau attack 0.823 / def 1.389 | Estac Troyes attack 0.829 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Concarneau xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Estac Troyes xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Concarneau vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Concarneau vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Concarneau vs Estac Troyes?
Concarneau 1 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Concarneau vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Concarneau vs Estac Troyes part of?
Concarneau vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Concarneau vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Concarneau a 29% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Concarneau vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Concarneau and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Concarneau vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Concarneau 0W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Concarneau and Estac Troyes in?
Concarneau (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Concarneau's attack at 0.82x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.83x) against Concarneau's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
29%
3.48
28%
3.59
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Concarneau xG
Total xG
2.31
1.31
Estac Troyes xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.84
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Concarneau vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Concarneau and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Concarneau and 1.31 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Concarneau vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Concarneau come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 4D 10L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (5W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Concarneau against 1.15 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Concarneau's home form reads 2W 2D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (1W 5D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Concarneau are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.20 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Concarneau
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Concarneau and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Concarneau have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 5W 8D 7L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Concarneau at home or Estac Troyes away?
Concarneau's home record (0.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Concarneau at home: 0.89 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Concarneau
1
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Concarneau and Estac Troyes?
From 2 meetings on record, Concarneau have won 1, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Concarneau and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2024, when Concarneau 1-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Concarneau and Estac Troyes?
Concarneau have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Concarneau 56%, Estac Troyes 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Concarneau) and 33% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 33%; Concarneau have failed to score in 44% of games; Estac Troyes in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Concarneau home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Concarneau play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Concarneau's games and 56% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Concarneau vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Concarneau's recent games and 33% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Concarneau defy the odds to beat Estac Troyes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau beat Estac Troyes 1-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Concarneau 1.01 xG and Estac Troyes 1.31 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Concarneau attack 0.82 / defence 1.39 against Estac Troyes attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Concarneau 29% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 43%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Concarneau win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Concarneau 40%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Concarneau's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Concarneau 1.10 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Concarneau win broke the near-deadlock. Concarneau (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.