Grenoble 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grenoble vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Grenoble welcome Auxerre to Stade des Alpes. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Grenoble — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's home record at Stade des Alpes: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade des Alpes.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Auxerre have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Auxerre — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Grenoble, 2 for Auxerre and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Grenoble in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Auxerre in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 33% versus Auxerre 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 36% | Auxerre 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.28 xG and Auxerre 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 1.039 / defence 1.083 | Auxerre attack 1.226 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. Auxerre have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Grenoble games / 20 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 32% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 43%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Auxerre 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 40% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 32% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Grenoble 1.28 / Auxerre 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 1.039 / def 1.083 | Auxerre attack 1.226 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Auxerre xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Auxerre kick off?
Grenoble vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Auxerre?
Grenoble 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Grenoble vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Auxerre part of?
Grenoble vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 32% chance of winning, Auxerre a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Grenoble and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Grenoble 0W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 2W.
What form are Grenoble and Auxerre in?
Grenoble (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Auxerre (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (1.04) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
32%
3.10
25%
3.97
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Grenoble xG
Total xG
2.78
1.50
Auxerre xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
7%
13.94
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Grenoble and 1.50 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Grenoble come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 17D 18L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.31 PPG from 58 outings (20W 16D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.48 PPG, Auxerre on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Grenoble's home form reads 14W 9D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.17 points per game from 29 outings (9W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grenoble are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.34 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 60%.
Defensively: Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 23W 17D 18L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 20W 16D 22L in their last 58 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Auxerre away?
Grenoble's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.76 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Auxerre in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Aug 2021, when Auxerre won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grenoble's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Grenoble
2
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 0, Auxerre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2024, when Grenoble 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grenoble 38%, Auxerre 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Grenoble) and 59% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Grenoble's recent matches and 66% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Grenoble's recent games and 59% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grenoble and Auxerre tend to score early?
Grenoble have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grenoble and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 21, as Grenoble and Auxerre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.28 xG and Auxerre 1.50 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Auxerre attack 1.23 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 32% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 43%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 36%, Auxerre 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.48 PPG, Auxerre 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.