Annecy 0-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Annecy welcome PAU to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 2W 4D 4L at Parc des Sports — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAU are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Annecy, 1 for PAU and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 3–0 with Annecy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
PAU trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 49% | PAU 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.39 xG and PAU 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.976 / defence 1.187 | PAU attack 1.109 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.133. Data: 59 Annecy games / 59 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 25% | PAU 40%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 25% | PAU 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Annecy 1.39 / PAU 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.976 / def 1.187 | PAU attack 1.109 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: PAU (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.49
PAU xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs PAU kick off?
Annecy vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs PAU?
Annecy 0 - 0 PAU.
Where is Annecy vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs PAU part of?
Annecy vs PAU is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 35% chance of winning, PAU a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Annecy and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and PAU?
Record (3 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 1 | PAU 1W.
What form are Annecy and PAU in?
Annecy (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. PAU (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.98) and PAU's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
35%
2.84
25%
4.02
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.88
1.49
PAU xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
8%
12.59
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Annecy and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Annecy and 1.49 for PAU, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 19D 25L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.32 PPG from 59 outings (20W 18D 21L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.08 PPG, PAU on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Annecy's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.21 points per game from 29 outings (9W 8D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.25 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and PAU in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 15W 19D 25L in their last 59 games (1.08 PPG), while PAU have gone 20W 18D 21L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or PAU away?
Annecy's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.41 PPG; PAU away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Annecy or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, PAU in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and PAU runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2026, when Annecy won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting PAU specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
2
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, PAU have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Annecy 5-1 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 45%, PAU 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Annecy) and 45% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 28% of games; PAU in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Annecy's recent matches and 59% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Annecy's recent games and 45% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and PAU tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, PAU in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 22, as Annecy and PAU drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.39 xG and PAU 1.49 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.4 short of their projected output. PAU landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.98 / defence 1.19 against PAU attack 1.11 / defence 1.16, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 35% | Draw 25% | PAU 40%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 49%, PAU 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAU's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.08 PPG, PAU 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.