Annecy 0-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Annecy welcome PAU to Parc des Sports in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Annecy have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Annecy have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, PAU stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
PAU's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PAU are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Annecy's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Annecy, 1 for PAU and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Annecy 3–0 PAU — a Annecy win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
PAU trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 49% | PAU 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.39 xG and PAU 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.976 / defence 1.187 | PAU attack 1.109 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.133. Data: built from Annecy's last 59 games and PAU's last 59.
Result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 25% | PAU 40%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.84 | Draw 4.02 | PAU 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 70% (last 10 home games) | PAU 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 22 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 25% | PAU 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Annecy 1.39 / PAU 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.976 / def 1.187 | PAU attack 1.109 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: PAU (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.49
PAU xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs PAU FAQs
What time does Annecy vs PAU kick off?
Annecy vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs PAU?
Annecy 0 - 0 PAU.
Where is Annecy vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs PAU part of?
Annecy vs PAU is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 35% chance of winning, PAU a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Annecy and PAU will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Annecy vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.98) and PAU's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 59 games and PAU's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
35%
2.84
25%
4.02
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.88
1.49
PAU xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
8%
12.59
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs PAU Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Annecy and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Annecy and 1.49 for PAU, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 19D 25L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.32 PPG from 59 outings (20W 18D 21L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.08 PPG, PAU on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Annecy's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 29 away games (9W 8D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.25 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
PAU
Blended
Annecy (Home) vs PAU (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Annecy vs PAU Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and PAU in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 15W 19D 25L in their last 59 games (1.08 PPG), while PAU have gone 20W 18D 21L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or PAU away?
Annecy's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.41 PPG; PAU away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Annecy or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, PAU in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Annecy have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Apr 2026, when Annecy won Annecy 5-1 PAU.
Annecy's record when hosting PAU specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Annecy
2
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs PAU H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and PAU?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 4, PAU have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and PAU last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: PAU 0-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and PAU?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 45%, PAU 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Annecy) and 45% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 28% of games; PAU in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs PAU Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and PAU matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Annecy's recent matches and 59% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and PAU matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Annecy's recent games and 45% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and PAU matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Annecy's recent matches and 72% of PAU's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 22, as Annecy and PAU drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.39 xG and PAU 1.49 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.4 short of their projected output. PAU landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.98 / defence 1.19 against PAU attack 1.11 / defence 1.16, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 35% | Draw 25% | PAU 40%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 49%, PAU 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAU's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.08 PPG, PAU 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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