Bastia 1-2 Caen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bastia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Caen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bastia host Caen at Stade Armand-Césari in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Armand-Césari, Bastia have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand-Césari than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Caen have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Caen's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bastia at 1.30 PPG versus Caen's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bastia, 3 for Caen and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Caen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Caen trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 41% versus Caen 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 40% | Caen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.41 xG and Caen 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.983 / defence 0.815 | Caen attack 1.022 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. Data: 58 Bastia games / 58 Caen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 48% | Draw 27% | Caen 25%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Caen 4.00. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 40% | Caen 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Caen | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 48% | Draw 27% | Caen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Bastia 1.41 / Caen 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.983 / def 0.815 | Caen attack 1.022 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Bastia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Caen xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Caen kick off?
Bastia vs Caen kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Caen?
Bastia 1 - 2 Caen.
Where is Bastia vs Caen being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Caen part of?
Bastia vs Caen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Caen?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 48% chance of winning, Caen a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Caen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bastia and Caen will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Caen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Caen?
Record (5 meetings): Bastia 1W | Draws 1 | Caen 3W.
What form are Bastia and Caen in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Caen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bastia's attack rating (0.98) and Caen's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Caen's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.70
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.36
0.94
Caen xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Caen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bastia and Caen expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Bastia and 0.94 for Caen, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Caen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Bastia have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 23W 15D 20L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Caen's form line: 24W 16D 18L from 58 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.45 PPG, Caen on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bastia have posted 1.90 PPG from 29 outings (16W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Caen have gone 8W 8D 13L from 29 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Caen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Caen are on 1.38 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Caen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Caen in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 23W 15D 20L in their last 58 games (1.45 PPG), while Caen have gone 24W 16D 18L in their last 58 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Caen away?
Bastia's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.90 PPG; Caen away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Bastia or Caen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Caen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bastia's record when hosting Caen specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bastia
1
Draws
5
Caen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Caen?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 2, Caen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Caen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Bastia 2-1 Caen.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Caen?
Caen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 38%, Caen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bastia) and 52% (Caen).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 28% of games; Caen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Caen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Caen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 59% of Caen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Caen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bastia's recent games and 52% of Caen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Caen tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Caen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Caen defy the odds to beat Bastia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Bastia 1-2 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.41 xG and Caen 0.94 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Caen outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.98 / defence 0.81 against Caen attack 1.02 / defence 1.18, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 48% | Draw 27% | Caen 25%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Caen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 40%, Caen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Caen's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.45 PPG, Caen 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Caen win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Caen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.