Saint Etienne 0-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 41%, yet in-form Amiens provide a compelling counter-argument — this Saint Etienne vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to face Saint Etienne in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Saint Etienne have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Amiens have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Amiens arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Saint Etienne 0–1 Amiens — a Amiens win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 54% versus Amiens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 48% | Amiens 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.16 xG and Amiens 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.944 / defence 0.980 | Amiens attack 0.827 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.132. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 59 games and Amiens's last 59.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 41% | Draw 30% | Amiens 29%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.42 | Draw 3.35 | Amiens 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amiens (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 40% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 41% | Draw 30% | Amiens 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.16 / Amiens 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.944 / def 0.980 | Amiens attack 0.827 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Amiens xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Amiens kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Amiens kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Saint Etienne 0 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Amiens part of?
Saint Etienne vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 41% chance of winning, Amiens a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Saint Etienne and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Saint Etienne vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.94x the league average against Amiens's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.83x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 59 games and Amiens's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.35
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.08
0.92
Amiens xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.92 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 16D 19L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.32 PPG from 59 outings (21W 15D 23L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.32 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Saint Etienne's home form reads 14W 6D 8L across their last 28 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.98 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Amiens in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Amiens have gone 21W 15D 23L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Amiens away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.71 PPG; Amiens away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Amiens in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Saint Etienne have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won Saint Etienne 5-0 Amiens on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Amiens?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 3, Amiens have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: Saint Etienne 5-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Amiens?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 43%, Amiens 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Saint Etienne) and 43% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Amiens in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 46% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 43% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 82% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Amiens defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Saint Etienne 0-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.16 xG and Amiens 0.92 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Saint Etienne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Amiens attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 41% | Draw 30% | Amiens 29%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Amiens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 48%, Amiens 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.49 PPG, Amiens 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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