Monaco 3-0 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Monaco at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Louis II plays host to Monaco versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 20 March 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Monaco have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stade Louis II, Monaco have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Louis II. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Monaco are significantly better at Stade Louis II than their overall form suggests.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Paris Saint Germain arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Monaco, 1 for Paris Saint Germain and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Paris Saint Germain half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 46% versus Paris Saint Germain 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 46% | Paris Saint Germain 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.52 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.181 / defence 0.980 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.086 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.061 / away 1.140. Paris Saint Germain bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Monaco's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Monaco games / 28 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 44% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 30%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Paris Saint Germain 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Paris Saint Germain (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 50% | Paris Saint Germain 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 44% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Monaco 1.52 / Paris Saint Germain 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.181 / def 0.980 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.086 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.061 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Monaco (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Paris Saint Germain xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Monaco 3 - 0 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 44% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Monaco and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (1 meetings): Monaco 0W | Draws 0 | Paris Saint Germain 1W.
What form are Monaco and Paris Saint Germain in?
Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Monaco's attack at 1.18x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.09x) against Monaco's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
44%
2.25
25%
3.96
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.74
1.21
Paris Saint Germain xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.56
7%
15.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Monaco and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Monaco and 1.21 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 11W 8D 9L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Paris Saint Germain's form line: 20W 5D 3L from 28 games, 2.32 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monaco.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Monaco have posted 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L).
On the road, Paris Saint Germain have gone 7W 4D 3L from 14 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Paris Saint Germain's season.
Attack vs Defence
Monaco are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.11 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Current Season
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 11W 8D 9L in their last 28 games (1.46 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 20W 5D 3L in their last 28 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Monaco's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.79 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Monaco or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Monaco go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 3-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Monaco
2
Draws
4
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 4, Paris Saint Germain have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 1-3 Monaco.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 50%, Paris Saint Germain 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Monaco) and 50% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Monaco's games and 71% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Monaco's recent games and 50% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monaco run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Paris Saint Germain.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Paris Saint Germain 3-0 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.52 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.21 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris Saint Germain landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.18 / defence 0.98 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.09 / defence 1.22, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 44% | Draw 25% | Paris Saint Germain 30%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 46%, Paris Saint Germain 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.46. Form was overturned, with Monaco winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.