Reims 1-1 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Strasbourg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Strasbourg make the trip to Stade Auguste-Delaune II to face Reims in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Reims have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
Strasbourg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Strasbourg away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Strasbourg are 0.80 PPG clear of Reims in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Reims lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Strasbourg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 50% versus Strasbourg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 38% | Strasbourg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.27 xG and Strasbourg 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.992 / defence 1.022 | Strasbourg attack 1.085 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.174. Data: 26 Reims games / 26 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 36% | Draw 27% | Strasbourg 37%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Strasbourg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Strasbourg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Strasbourg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Reims 40% | Strasbourg 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 36% | Draw 27% | Strasbourg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Reims 1.27 / Strasbourg 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.992 / def 1.022 | Strasbourg attack 1.085 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Strasbourg xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Strasbourg kick off?
Reims vs Strasbourg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Strasbourg?
Reims 1 - 1 Strasbourg.
Where is Reims vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Strasbourg part of?
Reims vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 36% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Reims and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Strasbourg?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 0W | Draws 1 | Strasbourg 0W.
What form are Reims and Strasbourg in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Strasbourg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.99) and Strasbourg's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Strasbourg's attack (1.08x) against Reims's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.76
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Reims xG
Total xG
2.57
1.30
Strasbourg xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Reims and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Reims and 1.30 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims's recent record stands at 7W 10D 9L from 26 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 7L across 26 games — 1.65 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Strasbourg by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reims have managed 4W 4D 4L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 5W 4D 3L across 12 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.85 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 7W 10D 9L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 12W 7D 7L in their last 26 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Strasbourg away?
Strasbourg's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.33 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Reims or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reims have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Strasbourg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Reims
4
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Strasbourg?
From 8 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Strasbourg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Reims 0-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Strasbourg?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 42%, Strasbourg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Reims) and 42% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Strasbourg in 42%; Reims have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Strasbourg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Reims's recent matches and 50% of Strasbourg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Reims's recent games and 42% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Strasbourg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 27, as Reims and Strasbourg drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.27 xG and Strasbourg 1.30 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Strasbourg attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 36% | Draw 27% | Strasbourg 37%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 38%, Strasbourg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Strasbourg's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.