Nantes 1-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to face Nantes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Nantes (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Reims's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Nantes, 1.50 for Reims — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nantes 0W, Reims 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Nantes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 52% versus Reims 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nantes 39% | Reims 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.51 xG and Reims 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.092 / defence 1.191 | Reims attack 0.731 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.164. Data: 23 Nantes games / 23 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 48% | Draw 27% | Reims 25%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Reims 4.00. Nantes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 50% | Reims 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 48% | Draw 27% | Reims 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Nantes 1.51 / Reims 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 1.092 / def 1.191 | Reims attack 0.731 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Nantes (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Reims xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Reims kick off?
Nantes vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Reims?
Nantes 1 - 0 Reims.
Where is Nantes vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Reims part of?
Nantes vs Reims is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 48% chance of winning, Reims a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Nantes and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Reims?
Record (1 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 0 | Reims 1W.
What form are Nantes and Reims in?
Nantes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Reims (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nantes's attack rating (1.09) and Reims's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.73x) against Nantes's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
48%
2.06
27%
3.76
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.53
1.01
Reims xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
6%
18.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Nantes and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Nantes and 1.01 for Reims, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nantes come into this having played 23 games, going 9W 5D 9L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.17 PPG from 23 outings (6W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Nantes against 1.17 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nantes's home form reads 6W 2D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Reims have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nantes are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Reims in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while Reims have gone 6W 9D 8L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Reims away?
Nantes's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.82 PPG; Reims away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nantes or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Reims in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won 0-3 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nantes
1
Draws
5
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Reims have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Reims 1-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 46%, Reims 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nantes) and 36% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 36% of games; Reims in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Nantes's recent matches and 64% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nantes's recent games and 36% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Reims tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Reims in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nantes edge out Reims 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Reims 1-0 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.51 xG and Reims 1.01 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reims landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 1.09 / defence 1.19 against Reims attack 0.73 / defence 1.18, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 48% | Draw 27% | Reims 25%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 39%, Reims 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Reims's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.39 PPG, Reims 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantes win broke the near-deadlock. Nantes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.