Monaco 3-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Louis II plays host to Monaco versus Nantes in Ligue 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 20:05 UK time.
Current Form
Monaco's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Monaco at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Monaco are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Nantes (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nantes's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Monaco, who have won 4 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against Nantes — Nantes have 0 wins, with 5 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2025, ended Monaco 5–3 Nantes — a Monaco win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Monaco and goals — 4 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 4.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Monaco — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Nantes — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Monaco 60% and Nantes 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 62% | Nantes 46%). Note also that Nantes surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Monaco recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.80 xG and Nantes 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.142 / defence 1.188 | Nantes attack 0.938 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.171. Data: built from Monaco's last 55 games and Nantes's last 55.
Result probabilities: Monaco 49% | Draw 23% | Nantes 28%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.03 | Draw 4.34 | Nantes 3.60. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.30) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Monaco 4 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Monaco's last 10 home games and Nantes's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.6 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Monaco 60% (last 10 home games) | Nantes 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 20:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 49% | Draw 23% | Nantes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Monaco 1.80 / Nantes 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.142 / def 1.188 | Nantes attack 0.938 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Monaco (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Nantes xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monaco vs Nantes FAQs
What time does Monaco vs Nantes kick off?
Monaco vs Nantes kicked off at 20:05 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Nantes?
Monaco 3 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Monaco vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Nantes part of?
Monaco vs Nantes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 49% chance of winning, Nantes a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Monaco and Nantes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Monaco vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monaco's attack at 1.14x the league average against Nantes's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.94x) against Monaco's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Monaco's last 55 games and Nantes's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.34
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Monaco xG
Total xG
3.11
1.30
Nantes xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
5%
21.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monaco vs Nantes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Monaco and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Monaco and 1.30 for Nantes, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monaco come into this having played 55 games, going 26W 11D 18L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 0.91 PPG from 55 outings (11W 17D 27L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Monaco carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Monaco's home form reads 17W 4D 6L across their last 27 home games, a 2.04 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Monaco are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 27 away games (5W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 1.05 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Nantes in 60%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Nantes
Blended
Monaco (Home) vs Nantes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monaco
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Monaco vs Nantes Form FAQs
What form are Monaco and Nantes in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 26W 11D 18L in their last 55 games (1.62 PPG), while Nantes have gone 11W 17D 27L in their last 55 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Nantes away?
Monaco's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 2.04 PPG; Nantes away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Monaco have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won Monaco 7-1 Nantes on 15 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Monaco
5
Draws
0
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Monaco vs Nantes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Nantes?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Monaco have won 5, Nantes have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Nantes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Monaco 3-1 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Nantes?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 59%, Nantes 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Monaco) and 52% (Nantes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nantes in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monaco vs Nantes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monaco and Nantes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Monaco's games and 70% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Monaco and Nantes matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Monaco's matches and 52% of Nantes's.
Do Monaco and Nantes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Monaco's recent matches and 78% of Nantes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Nantes 3-1 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.80 xG and Nantes 1.30 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.14 / defence 1.19 against Nantes attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 49% | Draw 23% | Nantes 28%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 62%, Nantes 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Nantes's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm. Nantes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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