Lyon 1-1 Metz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lyon at 45%, yet in-form Metz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lyon vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Metz make the trip to Groupama Stadium to face Lyon in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lyon's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lyon have posted 4W 2D 4L at Groupama Stadium — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Lyon are significantly better at Groupama Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Metz have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Metz are 0.60 PPG clear of Lyon in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (0.90 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lyon have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Metz in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lyon 0W, Metz 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 2–3 with Metz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lyon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Metz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 66% versus Metz 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 62% | Metz 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.68 xG and Metz 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 0.975 / defence 1.456 | Metz attack 0.797 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.076. Data: 47 Lyon games / 10 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 45% | Draw 28% | Metz 26%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Metz 3.85. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lyon as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Metz (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 80% | Metz 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 45% | Draw 28% | Metz 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Lyon 1.68 / Metz 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 0.975 / def 1.456 | Metz attack 0.797 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Lyon (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Metz xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Metz kick off?
Lyon vs Metz kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Metz?
Lyon 1 - 1 Metz.
Where is Lyon vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Metz part of?
Lyon vs Metz is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 45% chance of winning, Metz a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Lyon and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Metz?
Record (2 meetings): Lyon 0W | Draws 1 | Metz 1W.
What form are Lyon and Metz in?
Lyon (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Metz (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lyon's attack rating (0.97) and Metz's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.80x) against Lyon's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 47/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.55
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.93
1.25
Metz xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
5%
20.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Lyon and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Lyon and 1.25 for Metz, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lyon's recent record stands at 18W 11D 18L from 47 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 11L across 47 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Lyon against 1.66 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lyon have managed 10W 7D 7L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 12W 5D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lyon are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.40 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Metz in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Metz in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 18W 11D 18L in their last 47 games (1.38 PPG), while Metz have gone 21W 15D 11L in their last 47 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Metz away?
Metz's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.54 PPG; Metz away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Lyon or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Metz in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lyon have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 3-0 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lyon
2
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Lyon have won 3, Metz have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Metz 2-5 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Metz?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 67%, Metz 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lyon) and 46% (Metz).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lyon's games and 50% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Lyon's recent games and 46% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Metz tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Metz in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon and Metz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon and Metz finished level at 1-1 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.68 xG and Metz 1.25 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 0.97 / defence 1.46 against Metz attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 45% | Draw 28% | Metz 26%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 62%, Metz 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.38 PPG, Metz 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.