Metz 0-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Metz at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metz vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Metz host Le Havre at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Metz stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Metz are significantly better at Stade Saint-Symphorien than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Metz at 1.10 PPG versus Le Havre's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Metz, 1 for Le Havre and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Metz in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Le Havre in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Metz 45% versus Le Havre 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Metz 40% | Le Havre 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Metz 1.24 xG and Le Havre 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metz attack 0.745 / defence 1.184 | Le Havre attack 0.767 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.158. Metz's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Metz games / 9 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Metz 40% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 30%. Fair-value odds: Metz 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Le Havre 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Metz are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Metz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Metz 50% | Le Havre 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Metz vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Saint-Symphorien • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Metz 40% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Metz 1.24 / Le Havre 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Metz attack 0.745 / def 1.184 | Le Havre attack 0.767 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Metz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Metz xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Le Havre xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Metz vs Le Havre kick off?
Metz vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What was the final score in Metz vs Le Havre?
Metz 0 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Metz vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
What competition is Metz vs Le Havre part of?
Metz vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Metz vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Metz a 40% chance of winning, Le Havre a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Metz vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Metz and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Metz vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Le Havre?
Record (2 meetings): Metz 0W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Metz and Le Havre in?
Metz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Metz's attack at 0.74x the league average against Le Havre's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Metz's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
40%
2.53
30%
3.28
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Metz xG
Total xG
2.29
1.05
Le Havre xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Metz vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Metz and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Metz and 1.05 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Metz vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Metz's recent record stands at 22W 14D 11L from 47 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 22W 19D 6L across 47 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Metz on 1.70 PPG, Le Havre on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Metz have managed 10W 9D 4L from 23 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 9W 11D 3L across 23 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Metz are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.19 scored and 0.66 conceded.
Defensively: Metz have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Le Havre in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Metz
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Metz and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Metz have gone 22W 14D 11L in their last 47 games (1.70 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 22W 19D 6L in their last 47 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Metz at home or Le Havre away?
Metz's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Metz at home: 1.70 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Metz or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Metz have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Le Havre in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Metz's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Metz
4
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Metz and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Metz have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Metz and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Le Havre 4-4 Metz.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Metz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Metz 39%, Le Havre 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Metz and 30% for Le Havre.
On the defensive side: Metz keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Le Havre in 44%; Metz have failed to score in 26% of games; Le Havre in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Metz home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Metz play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Metz's recent matches and 44% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Metz vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Metz's recent games and 30% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Metz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz and Le Havre finished level at 0-0 at Stade Saint-Symphorien, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Metz 1.24 xG and Le Havre 1.05 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Metz fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Le Havre landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metz attack 0.74 / defence 1.18 against Le Havre attack 0.77 / defence 1.14, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Metz 40% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 30%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metz 40%, Le Havre 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Metz's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Metz 1.70 PPG, Le Havre 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.