Nantes 0-1 Reims – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Nantes at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nantes face Reims.

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Analysis

Reims make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to face Nantes in Ligue 1 (matchday 11). The match kicks off on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Nantes (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Nantes at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Reims's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Reims's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Nantes, 1.70 for Reims — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Nantes's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) — Nantes have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Reims in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Nantes, 3 for Reims and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2023, ended Nantes 0–3 Reims — a Reims win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Nantes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 50% versus Reims 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 50% | Reims 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nantes surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Reims have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.66 xG and Reims 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 1.196 / defence 1.187 | Reims attack 1.228 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.074. Reims have an above-average attack rating of 1.228, which lifts their away xG to 1.57. Data: built from Nantes's last 48 games and Reims's last 48.

Result probabilities: Nantes 38% | Draw 28% | Reims 34%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.62 | Draw 3.62 | Reims 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Nantes as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nantes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nantes's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nantes 60% (last 10 home games) | Reims 60% (last 10 away games).

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