Lyon 1-2 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lyon host Clermont Foot at Groupama Stadium in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Lyon — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Groupama Stadium, Lyon have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Lyon are significantly better at Groupama Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lyon 0.60 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Lyon have won 1, Clermont Foot 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Clermont Foot winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Lyon in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 64% versus Clermont Foot 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 60% | Clermont Foot 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.64 xG and Clermont Foot 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.014 / defence 1.391 | Clermont Foot attack 1.012 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.163. Data: 46 Lyon games / 45 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 37% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 37%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Clermont Foot 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 80% | Clermont Foot 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 37% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Lyon 1.64 / Clermont Foot 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.014 / def 1.391 | Clermont Foot attack 1.012 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Clermont Foot xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Lyon vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Lyon 1 - 2 Clermont Foot.
Where is Lyon vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Clermont Foot part of?
Lyon vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 37% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lyon and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Clermont Foot?
Record (4 meetings): Lyon 1W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 2W.
What form are Lyon and Clermont Foot in?
Lyon (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lyon's attack rating (1.01) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.85
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Lyon xG
Total xG
3.27
1.64
Clermont Foot xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
19%
5.14
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
7%
13.89
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Lyon and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lyon and 1.64 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon come into this having played 45 games, going 17W 11D 17L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.36 PPG from 45 outings (17W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lyon on 1.38 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lyon's home form reads 9W 7D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.11 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 17W 11D 17L in their last 45 games (1.38 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 17W 10D 18L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Clermont Foot away?
Lyon's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.55 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lyon's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lyon
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Lyon have won 2, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Clermont Foot 0-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 64%, Clermont Foot 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lyon) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lyon's games and 64% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lyon's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Lyon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Lyon 1-2 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.64 xG and Clermont Foot 1.64 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.01 / defence 1.39 against Clermont Foot attack 1.01 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 37% | Draw 26% | Clermont Foot 37%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 60%, Clermont Foot 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.38 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.