Rennes 0-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Lyon in Ligue 1 (matchday 12). Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:05 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Rennes have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rennes's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rennes are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lyon's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lyon have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Rennes's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Lyon's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Rennes's last 10 home games and Lyon's last 10 away games) — Rennes have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Lyon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Rennes edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2023, ended Rennes 1–3 Lyon — a Lyon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rennes — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Lyon — key trading statistics (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rennes 60% and Lyon 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 62% | Lyon 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.79 xG and Lyon 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.276 / defence 1.210 | Lyon attack 0.837 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.022. Rennes carry an above-average attack rating of 1.276 — their 1.79 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Rennes's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lyon's projected output up. Data: built from Rennes's last 49 games and Lyon's last 48.
Result probabilities: Rennes 53% | Draw 28% | Lyon 19%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.90 | Draw 3.56 | Lyon 5.20. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rennes's last 10 home games and Lyon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rennes 70% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 16:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 53% | Draw 28% | Lyon 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Rennes 1.79 / Lyon 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.276 / def 1.210 | Lyon attack 0.837 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Rennes (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Lyon xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Lyon kick off?
Rennes vs Lyon kicked off at 16:05 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Lyon?
Rennes 0 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Rennes vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Lyon part of?
Rennes vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 53% chance of winning, Lyon a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Rennes and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rennes's attack at 1.28x the league average against Lyon's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (0.84x) against Rennes's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 49 games and Lyon's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.56
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.83
1.03
Lyon xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
3%
31.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Rennes and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Rennes and 1.03 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rennes's recent record stands at 23W 11D 14L from 48 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Lyon, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 18L across 48 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Rennes against 1.38 for Lyon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 16W 3D 4L from their last 23 home games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lyon's away record stands at 8W 4D 11L across their last 23 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.52 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lyon in 67%.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Lyon
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Lyon in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 23W 11D 14L in their last 48 games (1.67 PPG), while Lyon have gone 18W 12D 18L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Lyon away?
Rennes's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.22 PPG; Lyon away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Rennes or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lyon in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Lyon have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won Lyon 4-0 Rennes on 19 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rennes
0
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Lyon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 5, Lyon have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Lyon 4-0 Rennes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 52%, Lyon 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Rennes and 61% for Lyon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lyon in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Lyon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Rennes's games and 65% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rennes and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Rennes's matches and 61% of Lyon's.
Do Rennes and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Rennes's recent matches and 65% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lyon defy the odds to beat Rennes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Rennes 0-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.79 xG and Lyon 1.03 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rennes fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.28 / defence 1.21 against Lyon attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 53% | Draw 28% | Lyon 19%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Lyon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 62%, Lyon 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.67 PPG, Lyon 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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