Toulouse 1-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Toulouse at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Toulouse face Le Havre.

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Analysis & Preview

Le Havre travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Toulouse stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Toulouse have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Le Havre have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Le Havre have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.10 PPG versus Le Havre's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Toulouse have won 1, Le Havre 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Feb 2022, ended Toulouse 4–0 Le Havre — a Toulouse win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Toulouse in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Le Havre in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 56% versus Le Havre 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Le Havre 31%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Toulouse surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Le Havre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Le Havre surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Toulouse recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.59 xG and Le Havre 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.052 / defence 0.941 | Le Havre attack 0.699 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.074. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Data: built from Toulouse's last 48 games and Le Havre's last 10.

Result probabilities: Toulouse 56% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 14%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.78 | Draw 3.37 | Le Havre 7.13. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (56%) — a 26pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Toulouse's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Toulouse 50% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 40% (last 10 away games).

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