Toulouse 1-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Le Havre travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadium de Toulouse — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Le Havre have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.10 PPG versus Le Havre's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Toulouse have won 1, Le Havre 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2022, ended 4–0 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 56% versus Le Havre 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Le Havre 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.59 xG and Le Havre 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.052 / defence 0.941 | Le Havre attack 0.699 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.074. Data: 48 Toulouse games / 10 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 56% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 14%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.79 | Draw 3.33 | Le Havre 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (56%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 50% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 56% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Toulouse 1.59 / Le Havre 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.052 / def 0.941 | Le Havre attack 0.699 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Le Havre xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Le Havre kick off?
Toulouse vs Le Havre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Toulouse 1 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Toulouse vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Le Havre part of?
Toulouse vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 56% chance of winning, Le Havre a 14% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Toulouse and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Le Havre?
Record (2 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Le Havre in?
Toulouse (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Le Havre (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Toulouse's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
56%
1.78
30%
3.37
14%
7.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.30
0.71
Le Havre xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
7.13
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
3%
35.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.71 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse's recent record stands at 15W 14D 19L from 48 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 22W 20D 6L across 48 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Toulouse heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 7W 9D 7L from 23 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 9W 12D 2L across 23 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.17 scored and 0.65 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 15W 14D 19L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 22W 20D 6L in their last 48 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Le Havre away?
Le Havre's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.30 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Le Havre in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Toulouse
2
Draws
3
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Le Havre?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Le Havre have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 61%, Le Havre 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Toulouse) and 30% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 48%; Toulouse have failed to score in 26% of games; Le Havre in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Toulouse's recent matches and 44% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Toulouse vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Toulouse's recent games and 30% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Le Havre tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Toulouse 1-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.59 xG and Le Havre 0.71 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Le Havre outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 0.94 against Le Havre attack 0.70 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 56% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 14%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Le Havre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 56%, Le Havre 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.