Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lille at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Stade Brestois 29 welcome Lille to Stade Francis-Le Blé. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Francis-Le Blé this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Francis-Le Blé this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lille have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Stade Brestois 29) versus 1.70 (Lille). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stade Brestois 29, 0 for Lille and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stade Brestois 29 trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lille trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Brestois 29 71% and Lille 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 52% | Lille 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.19 xG and Lille 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.904 / defence 1.364 | Lille attack 1.014 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.206. Data: 21 Stade Brestois 29 games / 21 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 26% | Draw 26% | Lille 48%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Lille 2.08. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 50% | Lille 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 26% | Draw 26% | Lille 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.19 / Lille 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.904 / def 1.364 | Lille attack 1.014 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Lille (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Lille xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Stade Brestois 29 2 - 0 Lille.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 26% chance of winning, Lille a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
Record (1 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 0W | Draws 1 | Lille 0W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Lille (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stade Brestois 29's attack rating (0.90) and Lille's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
26%
3.82
26%
3.83
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.85
1.67
Lille xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
5%
20.26
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.67 for Lille, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stade Brestois 29 come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 7D 8L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Lille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.19 PPG, Lille on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stade Brestois 29's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.43 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Lille in 76%.
Last 21 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Lille in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Lille have gone 8W 8D 5L in their last 21 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Lille away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.20 PPG; Lille away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Lille specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
5
Draws
3
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
From 10 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Lille have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stade Brestois 29 at 50%, Lille at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stade Brestois 29) and 60% (Lille). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Lille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Stade Brestois 29's games and 80% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Stade Brestois 29's matches and 60% of Lille's.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Lille tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lille in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lille.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Lille 2-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.19 xG and Lille 1.67 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lille landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.90 / defence 1.36 against Lille attack 1.01 / defence 1.18, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 26% | Draw 26% | Lille 48%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Stade Brestois 29 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 52%, Lille 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Lille's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.19 PPG, Lille 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Lille (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.