Clermont Foot 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stade Brestois 29 (48%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Clermont Foot face Stade Brestois 29.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Clermont Foot welcome Stade Brestois 29 to Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Ligue 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Clermont Foot — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Clermont Foot at home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stade Brestois 29's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stade Brestois 29 — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Stade Brestois 29 have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Clermont Foot.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Clermont Foot 0–3 Stade Brestois 29 — a Stade Brestois 29 win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Stade Brestois 29 have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 52% versus Stade Brestois 29 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Stade Brestois 29 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Clermont Foot surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Stade Brestois 29 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Stade Brestois 29 surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Clermont Foot recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.81 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.702 / defence 1.126 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.134 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.086. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.702 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 58 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 58.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 20% | Draw 32% | Stade Brestois 29 48%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 5.06 | Draw 3.12 | Stade Brestois 29 2.08. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Clermont Foot's last 10 home games and Stade Brestois 29's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 30% (last 10 home games) | Stade Brestois 29 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 20% | Draw 32% | Stade Brestois 29 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Clermont Foot 0.81 / Stade Brestois 29 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.702 / def 1.126 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.134 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Stade Brestois 29 xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 FAQs
What time does Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Clermont Foot 1 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 20% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.70x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Clermont Foot's last 58 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
20%
5.06
32%
3.12
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.20
1.39
Stade Brestois 29 xG
5.06
20%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
5%
20.24
21%
4.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.3 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.39 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 20W 14D 24L from 58 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 20L across 58 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Clermont Foot on 1.28 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 10W 6D 13L from their last 29 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 9W 8D 12L across their last 29 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.26 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Clermont Foot (Home) vs Stade Brestois 29 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Clermont Foot
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 Form FAQs
What form are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 20W 14D 24L in their last 58 games (1.28 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 21W 17D 20L in their last 58 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Clermont Foot's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.24 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won Stade Brestois 29 3-0 Clermont Foot.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Clermont Foot have won 0, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2024: Clermont Foot 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 41%, Stade Brestois 29 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Clermont Foot) and 48% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 41% of games; Stade Brestois 29 in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Clermont Foot vs Stade Brestois 29 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 55% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 48% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 66% of Stade Brestois 29's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot and Stade Brestois 29 finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.81 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.39 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.70 / defence 1.13 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.13 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 20% | Draw 32% | Stade Brestois 29 48%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Stade Brestois 29 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 1.28 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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