Angers 0-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 44%, yet the head-to-head data favours Lille — this Angers vs Lille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Raymond-Kopa plays host to Angers versus Lille in Ligue 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Current Form
Angers's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Angers's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lille have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Lille have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Angers, 1.40 for Lille — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Lille, who have 4 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Scoring has been limited in the 7 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Angers 0–1 Lille — a Lille win.
Lille have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 38% versus Lille 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Angers 30% | Lille 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.44 xG and Lille 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.973 / defence 1.012 | Lille attack 0.911 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.221. Data: built from Angers's last 56 games and Lille's last 56.
Result probabilities: Angers 44% | Draw 26% | Lille 29%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.25 | Draw 3.82 | Lille 3.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Angers 50% (last 10 home games) | Lille 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 44% | Draw 26% | Lille 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Angers 1.44 / Lille 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.973 / def 1.012 | Lille attack 0.911 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Angers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Lille xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Lille FAQs
What time does Angers vs Lille kick off?
Angers vs Lille kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Lille?
Angers 0 - 1 Lille.
Where is Angers vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Lille part of?
Angers vs Lille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 44% chance of winning, Lille a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Angers and Lille will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Angers vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Angers's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.91x) against Angers's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 56 games and Lille's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.82
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Angers xG
Total xG
2.57
1.12
Lille xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Lille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Angers and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Angers and 1.12 for Lille, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers come into this having played 56 games, going 18W 11D 27L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.68 PPG from 56 outings (27W 13D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Angers's home form reads 11W 4D 13L across their last 28 home games, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.32 points per game from their last 28 away games (10W 7D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.55 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Lille
Blended
Angers (Home) vs Lille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Blended
Lille
Blended
❓ Angers vs Lille Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Lille in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 18W 11D 27L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Lille have gone 27W 13D 16L in their last 56 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Lille away?
Angers's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.32 PPG; Lille away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Angers or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lille in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Angers and Lille, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Lille have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Angers
2
Draws
6
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Lille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Lille?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 1, Lille have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Lille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Angers 0-2 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 43%, Lille 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Angers) and 43% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 36%; Angers have failed to score in 29% of games; Lille in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Lille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Lille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Angers's recent matches and 36% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Angers and Lille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Angers's recent games and 43% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Lille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Angers's recent matches and 71% of Lille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lille defy the odds to beat Angers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Angers 0-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.44 xG and Lille 1.12 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Angers fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Lille attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 44% | Draw 26% | Lille 29%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 30%, Lille 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Lille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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