West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bournemouth at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bournemouth travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham in Premier League (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, West Ham stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
West Ham's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Bournemouth have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Bournemouth away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Bournemouth's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of West Ham's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from West Ham's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, West Ham have won 2, Bournemouth 0, with 5 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended West Ham 2–2 Bournemouth — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
West Ham in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — West Ham 62% and Bournemouth 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 56% | Bournemouth 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: West Ham surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Bournemouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.80 xG and Bournemouth 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.949 / defence 1.268 | Bournemouth attack 1.248 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.280. Bournemouth's defence rating of 1.315 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing West Ham's projected output up. Bournemouth have an above-average attack rating of 1.248, which lifts their away xG to 2.03. West Ham's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bournemouth's projected output up. Data: built from West Ham's last 64 games and Bournemouth's last 64.
Result probabilities: West Ham 33% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 42%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 3.03 | Draw 3.99 | Bournemouth 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 74% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% — both xG figures (1.80 / 2.03) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (West Ham's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Ham 70% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 33% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 74% (No 26%) | xG West Ham 1.80 / Bournemouth 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.949 / def 1.268 | Bournemouth attack 1.248 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Bournemouth xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Ham vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does West Ham vs Bournemouth kick off?
West Ham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Bournemouth?
West Ham 0 - 0 Bournemouth.
Where is West Ham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Bournemouth part of?
West Ham vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 33% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both West Ham and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Ham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.95) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from West Ham's last 64 games and Bournemouth's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
33%
3.03
25%
3.99
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.82
2.03
Bournemouth xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.91
Clean Sheet
13%
7.59
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
4%
23.04
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Ham vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are West Ham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for West Ham and 2.03 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Ham's recent record stands at 17W 16D 31L from 64 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 24W 21D 19L across 64 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.05 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 8W 7D 17L from their last 32 home games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 10W 12D 10L across their last 32 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.58 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Bournemouth in 64%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
West Ham (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Ham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ West Ham vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are West Ham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 17W 16D 31L in their last 64 games (1.05 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 24W 21D 19L in their last 64 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Bournemouth away?
Bournemouth's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 0.97 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 6 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Apr 2023, when West Ham won Bournemouth 0-4 West Ham.
West Ham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
West Ham
6
Draws
0
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ West Ham vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Bournemouth?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, West Ham have won 2, Bournemouth have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Bournemouth?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 47% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — West Ham at 66%, Bournemouth at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for West Ham and 78% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Ham have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Ham vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Ham and Bournemouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of West Ham's games and 78% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are West Ham and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of West Ham's matches and 78% of Bournemouth's.
Do West Ham and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of West Ham's recent matches and 91% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Ham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham and Bournemouth finished level at 0-0 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.80 xG and Bournemouth 2.03 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Ham fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Bournemouth landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.95 / defence 1.27 against Bournemouth attack 1.25 / defence 1.31, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 33% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 42%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 56%, Bournemouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bournemouth's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.05 PPG, Bournemouth 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 27
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →