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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Hill Dickinson Stadium plays host to Everton versus Bournemouth in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Everton have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bournemouth (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bournemouth's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Everton have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bournemouth in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Everton, 4 for Bournemouth and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Everton winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Everton half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 43% versus Bournemouth 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 35% | Bournemouth 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.80 xG and Bournemouth 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.900 / defence 1.153 | Bournemouth attack 1.257 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.277. Bournemouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bournemouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Everton games / 63 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 38%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Bournemouth 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 60% | Bournemouth 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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