Everton 1-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Hill Dickinson Stadium plays host to Everton versus Bournemouth in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bournemouth (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Everton have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bournemouth in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Everton, 4 for Bournemouth and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 43% versus Bournemouth 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 35% | Bournemouth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.80 xG and Bournemouth 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.900 / defence 1.153 | Bournemouth attack 1.257 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.277. Bournemouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bournemouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 Everton games / 63 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 38%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Bournemouth 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 60% | Bournemouth 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 36% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG Everton 1.80 / Bournemouth 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.900 / def 1.153 | Bournemouth attack 1.257 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Bournemouth xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Bournemouth kick off?
Everton vs Bournemouth kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What was the final score in Everton vs Bournemouth?
Everton 1 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Everton vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Hill Dickinson Stadium.
What competition is Everton vs Bournemouth part of?
Everton vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 36% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Everton and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Bournemouth?
Record (7 meetings): Everton 3W | Draws 0 | Bournemouth 4W.
What form are Everton and Bournemouth in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.90x the league average against Bournemouth's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (1.26x) against Everton's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.87
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Everton xG
Total xG
3.65
1.85
Bournemouth xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.63
Clean Sheet
16%
6.37
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
6%
17.62
6%
15.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Everton and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Everton and 1.85 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 22D 20L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bournemouth sit at 1.43 PPG from 63 outings (23W 21D 19L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Everton against 1.43 for Bournemouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Everton's home form reads 9W 13D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Bournemouth have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (9W 12D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 63%.
Last 63 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 21W 22D 20L in their last 63 games (1.35 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 23W 21D 19L in their last 63 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Bournemouth away?
Everton's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.29 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Everton or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 3-0 on 12 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Everton
1
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Bournemouth?
From 9 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Bournemouth have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Bournemouth 1-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 48%, Bournemouth 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 45% for Everton and 77% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Everton's games and 77% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Everton vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Everton's matches and 77% of Bournemouth's.
Do Everton and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Everton have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Everton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Everton 1-2 at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.80 xG and Bournemouth 1.85 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Everton fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Bournemouth attack 1.26 / defence 1.35, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 36% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 38%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 35%, Bournemouth 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.35 PPG, Bournemouth 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.