Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Newcastle — this Tottenham vs Newcastle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Newcastle travel to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to take on Tottenham in Premier League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Tottenham stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Tottenham have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Newcastle have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Newcastle's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Tottenham) versus 1.10 (Newcastle). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Tottenham's games and 60% of Newcastle's (from Tottenham's last 10 home games and Newcastle's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Newcastle have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Tottenham.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.4 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2025, ended Tottenham 2–2 Newcastle — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Newcastle have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 4.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Tottenham in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Newcastle in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 59% versus Newcastle 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 64% | Newcastle 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Tottenham surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Newcastle have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.40 xG and Newcastle 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 0.887 / defence 1.108 | Newcastle attack 0.860 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.277. Data: built from Tottenham's last 63 games and Newcastle's last 63.
Result probabilities: Tottenham 38% | Draw 32% | Newcastle 30%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 2.61 | Draw 3.13 | Newcastle 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tottenham at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tottenham 80% (last 10 home games) | Newcastle 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Newcastle | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 38% | Draw 32% | Newcastle 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Tottenham 1.40 / Newcastle 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 0.887 / def 1.108 | Newcastle attack 0.860 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Newcastle xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tottenham vs Newcastle FAQs
What time does Tottenham vs Newcastle kick off?
Tottenham vs Newcastle kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Tuesday 10 February 2026 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Newcastle?
Tottenham 1 - 2 Newcastle.
Where is Tottenham vs Newcastle being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Newcastle part of?
Tottenham vs Newcastle is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Newcastle?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 38% chance of winning, Newcastle a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Newcastle?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tottenham and Newcastle will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tottenham vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tottenham's attack rating (0.89) and Newcastle's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Newcastle's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Tottenham's last 63 games and Newcastle's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
38%
2.61
32%
3.13
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.62
1.22
Newcastle xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tottenham vs Newcastle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Newcastle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Newcastle expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.22 for Newcastle, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Newcastle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tottenham come into this having played 63 games, going 18W 13D 32L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Newcastle sit at 1.57 PPG from 63 outings (29W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Newcastle carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Tottenham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Tottenham's home form reads 8W 7D 16L across their last 31 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Newcastle have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 31 away games (10W 8D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Tottenham are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Newcastle are on 1.63 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
Tottenham (Home) vs Newcastle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tottenham
Blended
Newcastle
Blended
❓ Tottenham vs Newcastle Form FAQs
What form are Tottenham and Newcastle in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 18W 13D 32L in their last 63 games (1.06 PPG), while Newcastle have gone 29W 12D 22L in their last 63 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Newcastle away?
Newcastle's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 1.00 PPG; Newcastle away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Newcastle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Newcastle in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Newcastle have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won Newcastle 6-1 Tottenham.
Tottenham's record when hosting Newcastle specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Tottenham
1
Draws
7
Newcastle
Recent Meetings
❓ Tottenham vs Newcastle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Newcastle?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Tottenham have won 2, Newcastle have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Newcastle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Tottenham 0-2 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Newcastle?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 71%, Newcastle 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Tottenham and 55% for Newcastle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newcastle in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Newcastle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tottenham vs Newcastle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tottenham and Newcastle matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Tottenham's games and 55% of Newcastle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tottenham and Newcastle matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Tottenham's matches and 55% of Newcastle's.
Do Tottenham and Newcastle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Tottenham's recent matches and 71% of Newcastle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Newcastle defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Tottenham 1-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.40 xG and Newcastle 1.22 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Newcastle attack 0.86 / defence 1.07, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 38% | Draw 32% | Newcastle 30%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Newcastle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 64%, Newcastle 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Newcastle's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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