Nottingham Forest 0-0 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Wolves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wolves make the trip to City Ground to face Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Nottingham Forest (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest at City Ground this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Wolves's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolves have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Nottingham Forest. A 0.50 PPG lead over Wolves (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nottingham Forest lead 2W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2025, ended 1–0 with Nottingham Forest winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Wolves — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus Wolves 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 51% | Wolves 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.25 xG and Wolves 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.832 / defence 1.003 | Wolves attack 0.680 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.282. Data: 63 Nottingham Forest games / 63 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 42% | Draw 36% | Wolves 23%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.38 | Draw 2.78 | Wolves 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 40% | Wolves 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Feb 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 42% | Draw 36% | Wolves 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.25 / Wolves 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.832 / def 1.003 | Wolves attack 0.680 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Wolves xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Wolves kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Wolves?
Nottingham Forest 0 - 0 Wolves.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Wolves part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 42% chance of winning, Wolves a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Wolves?
Record (7 meetings): Nottingham Forest 2W | Draws 4 | Wolves 1W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Wolves in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Wolves (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Wolves's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Wolves's attack (0.68x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
42%
2.39
36%
2.82
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.13
0.87
Wolves xG
2.39
42%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.0 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.87 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 63 games, going 26W 13D 24L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 0.79 PPG from 63 outings (13W 11D 39L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Wolves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nottingham Forest's home form reads 12W 8D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 0.77 points per game from 31 outings (6W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 1.11 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Wolves in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 26W 13D 24L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while Wolves have gone 13W 11D 39L in their last 63 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Wolves away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.42 PPG; Wolves away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nottingham Forest won 0-3 on 6 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nottingham Forest have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wolves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
5
Draws
1
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Wolves?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Wolves have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Wolves?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Wolves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 39%, Wolves 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Nottingham Forest) and 58% (Wolves).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 36% of games; Wolves in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 55% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 58% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Wolves tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wolves in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nottingham Forest's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest and Wolves finished level at 0-0 at City Ground, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.25 xG and Wolves 0.87 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nottingham Forest fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Wolves landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Wolves attack 0.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 42% | Draw 36% | Wolves 23%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Wolves 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolves's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nottingham Forest arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.