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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Liverpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Liverpool make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 20:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Sunderland have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sunderland's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Stadium of Light this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.

Liverpool's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Liverpool's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Sunderland against 1.60 for Liverpool. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sunderland have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Liverpool in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Sunderland, 0 for Liverpool and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Liverpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Liverpool 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 43% | Liverpool 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.60 xG and Liverpool 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.022 / defence 0.795 | Liverpool attack 1.132 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.277. Sunderland's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Sunderland games / 63 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sunderland 45% | Draw 31% | Liverpool 24%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Liverpool 4.17. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 60% | Liverpool 70% BTTS from recent games.

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